APPENDIX 24
Memorandum submitted by the Ministry of
Justice
Thank you for your letter of 19 November seeking
clarification on the issue of terrorist/extremist prisoner numbers.
We do produce prison population projections
which are based on assumptions about future sentencing trends
and the implications of policy initiatives. However these are
for the population as a whole. It is much more difficult to estimate
the number of extremist! terrorist prisoners within the overall
population and we can not predict future numbers with any certainty.
That said, it is possible to develop scenarios based on different
projections of possible future inflows (from agencies such as
the police and the courts) and working assumptions around issues
such as remand & conviction rates. The intention is to ensure
that the possible implications for the high security estate can
be factored into management decisions concerning future capacity
and use of the estate as a whole. What matters here is less the
precise detail of individual assumptions or particular scenarios
than being able to be confident that forward plans for the high
security estate are robust given a range of plausible future outcomes.
The 1,600 figure initially cited in the memorandum
was a product of such initial work at the start of the year. However,
since then the underpinning working assumptions have been subject
to significant revision and we also have, of course, greater evidence
concerning the developing 07-08 position. Given the sensitive
nature of this topic and the potentially misleading implications
of including figures subject to ongoing revision it was on reflection
felt more appropriate not to include either the 1,600 or any other
figure in the final memorandum.
The ongoing, uncertain and sensitive nature
of this scenario work would make it inappropriate for me to comment
substantively beyond this. All I can add is that numbers at present
in custody are materially below those "projected" for
07-08 by the initial scenario cited.
Our capacity and estate management plans continue
to reflect assessments of future prison population numbers and
composition.
27 November 2007
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