Select Committee on Northern Ireland Affairs Second Report

 
 

 
Appendix 3


Memorandum submitted by the Northern Ireland Office on 9 July 2007 in response to Questions from the Committee relating to the Northern Ireland Office Autumn Performance Report 2006

Efficiency targets

The report contains an update on progress against efficiency targets established under the 2004 Spending Review (SR04). The results are reported clearly, and the use of tables helpfully builds on the presentational approach of the Efficiency Technical Note. However, only very brief mention is made of the Department's measures to monitor and maintain service quality and validate figures, with the report directing the reader to the Efficiency Technical Note.

The efficiency gains for 2005/06 listed in the Autumn Performance Report show that overall the NIO outperformed those forecast in the Efficiency Technical Note. The Police Service Northern Ireland (PSNI), Northern Ireland Prison Service, and the Criminal Justice Directorate especially performed well beyond expectations. The PSNI gains come from above-expectation savings through corporate services; policy, funding and regulation; and increased productivity. For instance, the outcome for productivity for 2005/06 was £17,227,000, far above the forecast of £11,695,000. However, the forecast for 2007/08 has been revised down from that in the Efficiency Technical Note.

1.  What has enabled the Department to achieve efficiency savings in excess of initial forecasts, particularly in corporate services; policy, funding and regulation; and increased productivity?

Answer:

The Department's efficiency programme has been structured using a series of efficiency delivery groups, each of which reports progress on a quarterly basis. As a result, the focus on efficiency created by regular reporting and an increased awareness of the issue as the programme has progressed throughout the SR2004 period has resulted in more efficiencies being delivered than originally forecast. In some cases efficiencies have also been delivered more quickly than originally planned. In particular, the PSNI has continued to be the biggest contributor to the Department's efficiency programme and savings from FTR officer reduction, civilianisation strategies and reduced overtime - covering corporate services, policy, funding and regulation and increased productivity - have contributed significantly to the Department achieving efficiency savings in excess of initial forecasts.

2.  What has the Department done to ensure that these gains have not had a negative impact on services?

Answer:

To ensure the maintenance of service quality a process of self-assessment has been adopted within the Department - in line with best practice outlined by the National Audit Office. A verification and challenge role has been embedded within the Department's Financial Services Division (FSD). The self-assessment methodology has incorporated key performance indicators, customer surveys and feedback, PSA targets and service level agreements. In addition, the Department reports on the maintenance of service quality to HMT on a quarterly basis.

3.  Is there scope for increasing the final efficiency gains total by 2007/08 beyond those forecast?

Answer:

The Department considers that the efficiency targets set by HMT were stretching and has focused on achieving and, where possible, exceeding these targets. The current forecast of £98m efficiency savings by March 2008 is in excess of the £90m target and, whilst it is unlikely that the Department will generate further significant savings, the focus on efficiency will continue to ensure that current forecasts are delivered.

4.  Why have gains from productivity increases been so far above forecast for 2005/06, while the forecast for 2007-08 has been revised down since the publication of the Efficiency Technical Note?

Answer:

Efficiency savings from the Chief Constable's decision to reduce the Full Time Reserve have been realised quicker than originally planned, hence the over-achievement against 2005/06 forecasts. In addition, the Northern Ireland Prison Service's initiative for the early and successful introduction of Night Custody Officers has also had a significant impact on the Department's ability deliver productivity gains. The forecast for 2007/08 is only marginally down (£1m) from the Efficiency Technical Note forecast due to more accurate forecasting as the efficiency programme has progressed.

The Efficiency Technical Note specifies headcount reduction targets of 1,446 public servant posts, a figure which includes 128 civil servant posts, leaving a target of 1,318 for public servant reduction. While the 2006 Annual Report made this clear, the Autumn Performance Report does not explain that the figure of 1,446 public servants is inclusive of the civil servant target. At September 2006 there was a forecast reduction of 272 civil servant posts and 1,077 public servant posts by March 2008. The NIO admits in the Efficiency Technical Note and the Autumn Performance Report that the decision of the Chief Constable in September 2004 to retain 680 Full-Time Reserve Officers in the PSNI has had a negative impact on the Department's ability to meet these targets. In response to questions posed by the Committee following review of the 2006 Annual Report, the Department said it was seeking headcount reductions elsewhere in order to offset this. The Department also noted that the Treasury considered the civil servant target to be the more important, and that it was on course to exceed this target. The Autumn Performance Report states that 'measures are in place across all programmes to ensure that service quality is at least maintained, if not improved' as a result of staff reductions.

5.  What are the measures in place to ensure a continued level of service quality despite staff reductions? How is the Department monitoring the effectiveness of these measures?

Answer:

As described above (answer to question 2) a process of self- assessment has been adopted which incorporates key performance indicators, customer surveys and feedback, PSA targets and service level agreements to ensure a continued level of service quality. For example, the PSNI has in place a number of robust measures to ensure service quality is maintained and effectiveness monitored. These include:

    •   Accountability to District Policing Partnerships;

    •   District audit and accountability requirements to chief officers;

    •   Best Value Reviews;

    •   Local Financial Management and appointment of professional financial management teams in districts and HQ Departments; and

    •   Measurement and reporting of performance against policing plan objectives to the Policing Board.

6.  What steps are the Department taking to offset the Chief Constable's decision to retain 680 Full-Time Reserve officers?

Answer:

Original efficiency forecasts factored in the decision to retain 680 Full Time Reserve Officers. Therefore, this decision has not impacted on the forecast delivery of efficiency savings. In relation to headcount, HMT's public servants' reduction target was predicated on all FTR officers leaving. The Department has informed HMT that the public servant staff reduction target is unlikely to be achieved given the decision to retain 680 officers. Higher than target staff reductions elsewhere will assist in minimising the extent to which this target is not achieved.

7.  More broadly, I would be grateful if you could let me know what impact the restoration of devolution in Northern Ireland will have on the NIO's performance against its efficiency targets and whether the targets will be revised in light of these developments?

Answer:

It is not expected that the restoration of devolution in Northern Ireland will have an adverse impact on the NIO's performance against it efficiency targets. Therefore, targets have not been revised.

PUBLIC SERVICE AGREEMENT TARGETS

PSA Target 1 (part 1), which aims to increase confidence in the police by 3% by April 2008, relies on a composite suite of measures of public views taken from the Northern Ireland Crime Survey (NICS) and the Northern Ireland Omnibus Survey. The PSA SR04 Technical Note recorded the baseline confidence level at 71%, and the Department therefore aimed at a figure of 74% by March 2008. The Autumn Performance Report draws on new data from NICS fieldwork for the period July 2005 to June 2006. This has meant the baseline is now raised to 73% and therefore the target to 76%. Progress against PSA Target 1 (part 1) has slipped from 76% in March 2006 to 75% as of June 2006. The Autumn Performance Report describes the target as 'on track with confidence currently up by 2%'.

8.  Does the Department expect that by April 2008 public confidence in the police will have ceased to fluctuate in the manner of the current trend since June 2005, and therefore avoid dropping below target?

Answer:

Maintaining levels of confidence in policing remains a significant challenge for all the key stakeholders in policing, including the NI Policing Board and the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

As the influences on the delivery of this target are extremely complex the Department believes that it is unlikely that public confidence figures will have ceased to fluctuate in the manner of the current trend since June 2005. Although the latest confidence figures from the NI Crime Survey (NICS) show a slight upward movement, the rounded composite measure for the period April 2006 - March 2007 remains at 75%.

The NICS continuous fieldwork tends to evidence gradual change over a longer period and confidence figures can be significantly affected by public opinion (based on perception rather than actual personal experience) which in turn can be influenced by various external factors, including the media reporting of historic / unresolved cases and high profile incidents.

Other positive factors such as the recent restoration of the NI Assembly, a more stable political climate and the decision by Sinn Fein to support the PSNI and take their seats on the Policing Board and District Policing Partnerships may also have an impact on the level of public confidence in policing. Overall, confidence levels remain high and the Department will continue to work collaboratively and co-operatively with the key stakeholders to achieve this PSA target by April 2008.

The NIO met the PSA Target 1 (part 2) interim target of 18.5% Catholic representation in the police service by March 2006. The Autumn Performance Report sets a new interim target of 23.5% by March 2008.

9.  How did the Department decide upon the new March 2008 interim target figure for Catholic representation in the police service?

Answer:

The target was set according to an assessment of projected trends in the composition of the PSNI in the period ahead. In making the assessment, consideration is given to the overall goal of achieving the target of 30% Catholic officers by 2010/11; the PSNI establishment remaining at 7500; the severance programme; recruitment continuing at a rate of 440 per year and the variable of natural wastage.

PSA Target 2 requires that public confidence in the criminal justice system rise three percentage points against the baseline figure by April 2008. The Technical Note, using NICS 2005/06 data, set this baseline at 38%. The Autumn Performance Report, drawing on the newer NICS results, raises this figure to 39%. Confidence has been recorded every three months as standing at 42-43% consistently since June 2005, and has been steady at 43% since December 2005. The NIO is therefore currently exceeding this target.

The NICS employs a 'composite suite of measures' on public views on policing and the criminal justice system for PSA Targets 1 (part 1) and 2, respectively.

10.  Could the Department provide a breakdown of results for the components of the composite suites used for PSA Target 1 (part 1) and Target 2?

Answer:
PSA Target 1 (Confidence in the Police and Policing Arrangements)[29]    
 Jul-05  
  Jun-06  
Police do a good job 61  
Police provide ordinary day to day policing service  80 
Police treat Catholics and Protestants equally  76 
NIPB independent of police 75  
NIPB helps police do a good job 76  
OPONI independent of police 90  
OPONI helps police do a good job 86  
Composite Confidence Measure 75  
Source: Northern Ireland Crime Survey. All figures exclude don't knows and refusals.   



PSA Target 2 (Confidence in the Criminal Justice System)[30]    
 Jul-05  
  Jun-06  
Bringing those who commit crimes to justice  43 
Meeting the needs of victims of crime 34  
Respecting rights of people accused and treating them fairly  79 
Dealing with cases promptly and efficiently  38 
Reducing crime 34  
Dealing with young people accused of crime  28 
Composite Confidence Measure 43  
Source: Northern Ireland Crime Survey. All figures exclude don't knows and refusals.   

The NIO has far surpassed its targets within PSA Target 3 (part 1) for reducing domestic burglary and vehicle theft. Burglary has diminished by 20% and vehicle theft 48%, against targets of only 15% and 10%, respectively, by April 2007.

11.  Does the Department plan to revise the surpassed PSA Target 3 (part 1)?

Answer:

These were challenging targets agreed with HM Treasury some five years ago and were based on similar targets set for the Home Office. Working in partnership with a range of organisations we have successfully over-achieved with reductions of 24.6 % for domestic burglary and 52.5% for car crime. The Department has no plans to revise these particular targets. However, as part of the current Comprehensive Spending Review, the Department will set new testing targets in other crime areas. These are currently being worked on and will apply during the CSR07 years.

The NIO cannot provide an outturn for PSA Target 3 (part 2), which aims to reduce the rate of reconviction compared to the predicted rate by 5% by April 2008. The performance measure is based on the 2005 cohort, and an outturn can only be identified once the data for that cohort on reconviction over two years following discharge is available. Although reconviction rates for 2001 and 2002 were lower than predicted, the rate rose from 41.4% to 43.1% over those years.

12.  How does the Department account for the increasing reconviction rate between 2001 and 2002?

Answer:

Personal characteristics such as age, gender, offence type and number of previous offences (criminal history) are closely associated with reconviction rates. Consequently, direct comparisons cannot be made with previous years as the personal characteristics of those who receive a non-custodial disposal or are released from custody will vary year on year. The reconviction rates referred to above are actual reconviction rates. As these are not directly comparable, a statistical model has been developed to provide predicted rates to act as yardsticks in assessing progress towards reducing re-convictions. Statistical modelling of the criminological characteristics of offenders contained in the 2003 cohort predicted a reconviction rate of 48.5%. The actual reconviction rate at the end of the two-year follow-up period was 43.7%. This represents a reduction in reconviction of 10% compared to the predicted rate. The comparable reductions for 2001 and 2002 were 11% and 7% respectively.

13.  Has the Department drawn any lessons from the results for reconviction for 2001 and 2002 which will help it meet PSA Target 3 (part 2)?

Answer:

The substantial reductions in reconviction indicate that the current interventions from inter alia the Probation Board for Northern Ireland, the Northern Ireland Prison Service and the Criminal Justice System are effectively impacting on reconviction levels. The aim is to build upon and refine current practice to exert further downward pressure on re-conviction rates. However, the multi-faceted nature of re-offending means that it is not possible to directly attribute the reductions to individual or discrete interventions.

The 2005/06 outturn for PSA Target 4, which aims to reduce cost per prisoner place in Northern Ireland, has been verified since the 2006 Annual Report. The target for 2005/06 of £86,290 was met, with the actual outturn £85,900. However, the NIO admits that the 2006/07 target of £85,250 is at risk because the number of prisoner places has not increased as planned. The six strand Strategic Development Programme is intended to help the NIO meet future targets.



14.  What are the exact gains, or projected gains, from each strand of the Strategic Development Programme?

Answer:

Strand 1 reviewed a number of areas including the future prisoner population, security classification, needs of inmate groups and the future prisoner role of each establishment. For the first time this permitted NIPS to examine its future prison requirements strategically against the projected population levels and the needs of the individual categories of prisoner.

Strand 2 examined the current state of the prison estate, alternative design solutions and the effect on local areas should the Service take a decision to relocate an establishment. This data has already been utilised in the design and delivery of new contingency cell accommodation. The report by consultants on the economic effect has been published.

Strand 3 examined the potential for contestability and the associated risks. This covers the option to use private sector provision in services provided by NIPS - it remains confidential.

Strand 4 looked at the current and future provision of escorting services. This led to the Ministerial decision to unite the escorting and court custody functions under a single management structure. This led to the transfer in February of 100 private sector staff into the newly created Prisoner Escorting Court Custody Service (PECCS). After full implementation, it is anticipated that savings of over £2m per annum will be achieved from 2008/09 onwards.

Strand 5 covered personnel issues including staff pay, grading, reward and HR Strategy. A major achievement has been a 3-year pay and efficiency deal, which has just been approved by the Pay Review Body (PRB). This led to the cutting of the equivalent of 150 staff in April. Through a large reduction in overtime, this will save the Service up to £5m per annum and permit the reallocation of financial resources to meet the increasing level of prisoner numbers and staffing of new facilities. Also agreed is the introduction of lower cost Operational Support Grades (OSGs) who will replace Main Grade Officers (MGOs) in support posts and release them to the front line. This will commence in late 2007.

Strand 6 covers a number of areas including the relocation of NIPS central training, which our Minister announced in February would be collocated with the PSNI and Fire & Rescue in a new integrated training college for Northern Ireland. This will most probably be available from 2011/12 onwards. The NIPS is currently seeking Outline Planning Permission (OPP) for its existing college to maximise its disposal value. Other work already completed includes the recruitment and deployment of Night Custody Officers (NCOs) to replace MGOs during the night, permitting their redeployment to front line daytime duties. A Management Development Programme to train future uniformed managers commenced in March 2007. The budget for prisoner Healthcare transferred to the DHSSPS in April, which will have the effect of reducing Cost per Prisoner Place by 3.5% from 2007/08 onwards, which is similar to what occurs in England and Wales. The HPSS will take lead responsibility for prisoner healthcare.

Other work currently includes an Options Appraisal for late summer 2007 building upon the work in Strands 1-3 which will permit the Service and Ministers to identify the options for replacement of Magilligan Prison, at the current or at an alternative site. Additional cellular accommodation to meet the growing population needs is underway with two new blocks being delivered in 2008/09. Before then further accommodation will also be available from June 2007 at Magilligan.


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