Examination of Witnesses (Questions 400-410)
MS HELEN
WATSON, MR
GRAHAM FRENCH,
DR JONATHAN
BAILEY AND
MR GEOFF
MUIRHEAD CBE
27 FEBRUARY 2008
Q400 Chairman: In your estimation,
it is something they would have to deal with because you have
not got a clear view of whether it would help them or not?
Mr Muirhead: I think it is something
they would have to take a view on, and it depends what they think
they can get value out of their infrastructure.
Q401 Chairman: I think it has been
extremely helpful to us. May I just ask you in passing, Ms Watson,
are the current forecasts for air freight adequate?
Ms Watson: Could I pass that over
to my colleague?
Mr French: I think the forecast
you quote in your call for evidence, the 14 million tonnes by
2030—obviously you will be talking to the Transport Minister
later, but my view is that they are probably not the latest forecasts
from the Department for Transport.
Q402 Chairman: What would you tell
us instead?
Mr French: The 2007 document on
forecast for passenger demand and CO2 emissions which the DfT
put out, indicated that freight tonnage, they thought up to 2010
will remain broadly steady and thereafter grow in line with the
forecast made in 2001, which I think is about 5.5% per annum.
Now, a back-of-the-envelope calculation would indicate that would
be something around 7 million tonnes of freight by 2030.
Chairman: I am glad you can do that calculation
on the back of an envelope, Mr French!
Q403 Mr Leech: Why has it been reduced
by about 50%? It is 14 million down to a 7 million increase? Did
I hear correctly?
Mr French: Yes, that is correct.
Q404 Chairman: No, we are talking
about 5.5% in the future.
Mr French: In the document I mentioned
it says that growth in the 1990s was between 6 and 8% per annum
and from around 2001 through to the present it has been around
2% per annum in terms of air freight tonnage. In the DfT document
several reasons for this have been suggested, including increased
capacity and frequency of shipping services, aviation fuel prices
rising faster than shipping fuel prices, disruption to air services
during 2001 and 2002 and the increasing importance of the Far
East market.
Q405 Chairman: Do you think the current
forecast ought to be updated on a regular basis? Is that what
you are saying?
Mr French: Well, I think they
probably have been on a fairly regular basis, long-term forecasts
such as this up to 2030. I certainly know the DfT's underlying
passenger demand forecasts tend to be only updated every five
years, which for a long-term forecast like that is probably enough.
Q406 Chairman: Mott MacDonald thinks
we ought to have different ways of categorising air cargo forecasting
by marking segments. Have you got a view on that?
Mr French: It probably depends
what you are going to use the forecasts for. If the forecast is
just the component of looking at the total air traffic demand,
then given that freight is a relatively small component of that
it might not be appropriate to model freight in quite that much
detail.
Q407 Chairman: I think what they
were proposing was a number of new categories, air, express traffic
carried on cargo, general air freight carried on cargo, general
and air express traffic carried in the lower holds, domestic air
mail and international air mail. Does that seem logical to you,
given that it is the adequacy and the accuracy of this information
which will determine not only Government policy but also the response
of elected Members to these figures?
Mr French: In forecasting these
sorts of things it is normally reasonable to try and segment the
market down into different things which can be explained by different
underlying factors such as GDP, but without doing that analysis
up front you then find out that maybe all of the air freight volume
is just as equally related to, say, for example GDP, and then
there is no good reason to split it out.
Q408 Chairman: So is there a particular
set of factors that would drive demand for freight through UK
airports?
Mr French: Not one that I know
of, but I would imagine that is the sort of thing the Government
will have considered, both in their 2001 freight forecasts and
their more recent ones.
Q409 Chairman: You have all been
extraordinarily helpful. That is very kind and I am very grateful.
I assume, Mr Muirhead, you were saying that more rail links to
airports would be very useful for freight transport, just not
for passengers alone?
Mr Muirhead: For all types of
usage, I think intermodal interchanges and making the best use
of resources by bringing these facilities together is an integrated
approach to transport. The word may have fallen into disrepute,
but that does not make it wrong.
Q410 Chairman: So is there any point
in looking for some kind of study which gives us some ideas and
accurate information to work on?
Mr Muirhead: I think there are
some studies which could be sensibly carried out. Manchester has
a rail link. It is getting a new platform built for it because
it has been so popular. It can be connected to the West Coast
Main Line with some investment. These sorts of things all need
to be looked at.
Chairman: Sirs and madam, thank you very
much for your evidence.
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