International DevelopmentWritten evidence submitted by the Met Office
Introduction
1. Afghanistan is a mountainous and arid country with distinctive weather seasons. Its reliance on snow melt from the Hindu Kush range for the greater part of its water supply—especially for irrigation—makes it particularly sensitive to natural hazards and changes in prevailing weather patterns. Agriculture forms a major cornerstone of the Afghan economy, accounting for 80% of employment and contributing to around 31% of the GDP. Crop harvests and yields, however, vary dramatically from year to year depending on the weather conditions.
2. It is estimated that natural hazards effect over half a million Afghan citizens each year. During the period 1970 to 1998 more than 57 major disasters occurred, which killed approximately 20,000 people and impacted more than 3.5 million. The key weather related hazards include: drought, extreme temperatures, floods, wind storms and landslides/avalanches. As the global climate changes, prevailing regional weather patterns in Afghanistan may be disrupted. Any subsequent changes in the intensity and frequency of natural hazards and in Afghanistan’s exposure to extreme events would exacerbate instability in an already fragile state.
3. An effective early weather warning system will help save lives and reduce the economic impact of these disasters. An increased understanding of seasonal conditions will help build a strong agricultural sector. Developing Afghanistan’s National Meteorological Authority could support national development programmes focussed on protecting livelihoods, poverty reduction and disaster risk reduction agendas.
4. Against this background, the Met Office has been working in partnership with DFID, FCO and the Afghan Government to understand the requirements for a sustainable national meteorological service. The resultant report details a coherent development path to strengthen the capability of the Afghan Meteorological Authority. This plan now needs to be taken forward to achieve the identified benefits following the military draw down in 2014.
Weather and Climate Services Underpinning Policy and Economic Growth
5. In addition to protecting lives and livelihoods, weather and climate sciences form the evidence base on which to make the best policy decisions in areas such as water resource management, infrastructure planning, agricultural practices and associated community education and communication.
6. The Afghan National Meteorological Authority suffered severe degradation in capability during the Taliban era. Climate records, observation records and infrastructure and the capability to provide ongoing operational weather forecasts were lost. Rebuilding these records and capability will be an important step in developing the National Meteorological Authority’s independence, securing its sustainability and ensuring policy is based on the best weather and climate advice available.
7. The project to understand Afghanistan’s meteorological requirements engaged various stakeholders within the Afghanistan Government who have a dependency on sustainable weather and climate services:
Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation.
National Environmental Protection Agency.
Ministry of Energy and Water.
Ministry of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock.
Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development.
8. Weather and climate services are also a key requirement for Afghanistan’s integration with the regional and international community. International aviation regulations, for example, mandate the delivery of a comprehensive aviation meteorological service, including forecasting and airport observations. Although investment is needed in order to establish these services, they should be self sustaining in the long-term in line with ICAO cost recovery mechanisms. A lack of sustainable aviation transport infrastructure is likely to severely impact economic growth.
9. The Met Office has completed significant capacity development projects in two previously conflict affected states (Sierra Leone and Rwanda). These projects were also delivered using a similar methodology of understanding user requirements and following a staged plan to build capacity according to the national government’s priority. In Sierra Leone, for example, the Met Department started forecast and data service delivery to government, the media and academic institutions for the first time in 20 years. This was a direct result of the Met Office’s recent project.
Next Steps
10. The strategy and plan produced for the Afghanistan government are fully sympathetic to the current context within Afghanistan and propose a partnership is formed with the Met Office. This will provide a ‘safety jacket’ for the Afghan Meteorological Authority to ensure essential meteorological services are provided to Afghanistan whilst development in-country takes place. A gradual transfer of responsibility to the Afghan Meteorological Authority will follow as its capability matures.
11. The Met Office is committed to continuing to work with DFID, FCO and other partners to take forward the development plan outlined in the recent report. To do this requires a sustainable support mechanism to be identified and a framework to be put in place to guide the Afghan Meteorological Authority development. Strengthening of the collaboration between both National Meteorological Services, other Afghan Ministries, DfID, UN and other donor institutions is vital for the success of this plan and its contribution towards stability in the region.
May 2012