1Introduction
1.The demography of any country depends on a number of factors. The number of births and deaths, the pattern of inward and outward migration and the health of a population all contribute to the demographic trends which must guide policy makers, businesses and health, education and social care providers. In recent years, Scotland’s demographic trends have been improved. After centuries of slow population growth, or even population decline, and high outward migration, Scotland is now a country with net inward migration and a steadily growing population. During our inquiry a number of reasons for this reversal were offered. Witnesses also noted the ongoing impact of historic events which have affected, and continue to affect, the demography of Scotland.
2.The current devolution settlement means that both Holyrood and Westminster have powers that can affect demographic trends. The UK Government has control over immigration policy, employment, pensions and the overall funding allocation to Scotland from the block grant. Health, housing and social care are devolved to the Scottish Parliament. The Scotland Act 2012 devolved limited tax powers and the Scotland Act 2016 gave further tax raising and spending powers to the Scottish Parliament. In order to address Scotland’s demographic trends, the UK and Scottish Governments will have to ensure there is effective joint working, both in those areas which affect Scotland and those which affect the UK as a whole.
Work by other Committees
3.Other committees in both Westminster and Holyrood have looked at some of the issues we consider in this report and we have referred to their evidence and findings where relevant. Both the House of Lords Select Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change’s report, Ready for Ageing?,1and the Scottish Parliament’s Finance Committee’s report on Demographic change and an ageing population2 have informed our work.
This Inquiry
4.We launched this inquiry in February 2016 to look at the current demography of Scotland and at future demographic trends in order to consider what impact they would have on Scotland. We have taken evidence from experts in the fields of business, population and demography, migration and fiscal studies. We held four evidence sessions in Westminster, which included taking evidence from both the UK and Scottish Governments, one evidence session in Edinburgh and one on the Isle of Skye, where we visited Sabhal Mòr Ostaig and met with Marc Smith of the Cuillin Collective in Elgol and Nigel Smith, the Skye & Lochalsh Branch Chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses and owner of Seaprobe Atlantis. We are grateful to all those who have contributed to this inquiry.
5.Much of the evidence in this inquiry was received before the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. The report does not, therefore, consider the impact of Brexit in depth. We have, however, highlighted some areas relating to Scotland’s demography which we consider likely to be affected by leaving the European Union. We are currently undertaking an inquiry into Scotland’s place in Europe.3
1 House of Lords, Report of the Select Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change, Session 2012–2013, HL Paper 140
2 Scottish Parliament, Finance Committee, 2nd Report, 2013 (Session 4): Demographic change and an ageing population, SP Paper 265
3 Scottish Affairs Committee, ‘Scotland’s Place in Europe inquiry’, accessed 24 November 2016
28 November 2016