2Addressing Scotland’s demographic challenges
Overview
6.Three key Scottish demographic trends were raised repeatedly during the course of our inquiry. These were:
a)Scotland’s population is growing but at a much slower rate than the UK as a whole, mainly due to lower levels of net immigration and fertility. Scotland has historically experienced low population growth, and even decline, partly due to a history of high levels of outward migration.
b)The age profile of Scotland’s population is rising at a faster rate than that in the UK as a whole. This is most pronounced in rural areas where there has been a failure to retain and attract young people leading to a higher dependency ratio than other parts of the UK.4
c)Life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy, is lower in Scotland than in other parts of the UK, especially for men. Both life expectancy and healthy life expectancy are increasing in Scotland. Life expectancy is increasing faster in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, albeit from a lower base.
Problems and challenges posed by Scotland’s demographic characteristics
7.Several witnesses have identified the combination of Scotland’s slower population growth, its aging population and lower life expectancy as one of the key challenges facing Scotland. COSLA (Convention of Scottish Local Authorities) told us that “the projected demographic profile […] presents significant challenges in terms of the sustainable provision of services to meet the needs of the over 65 population”.5 Marie Curie told us in written evidence that “people in Scotland are living with more complex needs than before. The majority of over-65s in Scotland have two or more long-term conditions, and the majority of over-75s have three or more conditions”.6 These people will need access to health and care services, potentially increasing the demands on NHS Scotland and Scottish social care services in the future.
8.National Records of Scotland has forecast that, over the next 25 years, Scotland will have a population with a lower proportion of working age people than it currently has, meaning that there will be a higher number of dependants. In their evidence to us they stated:
The overall dependency ratio for the UK is projected to rise from 61 to 67 dependants per 100 working age population between 2014 and 2039 […]. Scotland’s overall dependency ratio is projected to rise from 58 to 67 dependants per 100 working age population over the same period. This is a larger projected increase for Scotland than for UK.7
9.Although this is a positive development, an increased dependency ratio may be a concern for policy makers across the UK. In Scotland there are two main areas where an increased dependency ratio may have an impact. Firstly, the Scotland Act 2016 devolves control of significant tax revenue, notably income tax and a proportion of VAT receipts, to the Scottish Parliament. If the Scottish population as a whole gets older then demand for funding for services for an aging population would be likely to increase more quickly than the tax receipts from income tax due to the slower growth of the work age population compared to those of pension age. The second concern was that it is already difficult to fill some vacancies in a number of areas, including health and social care.8 An ageing population will see more demand for those services without a commensurate increase in the pool of working age people available to fill the vacancies. COSLA explained that this was why working age people with families were the demographic they most wished to attract to Scotland. They told us that “the most financially attractive group are working-age people with families, due to their tax contribution and the ability to help counter an ageing population profile over the longer term”.9
Population growth
10.The Scottish Government believes that growing the population is necessary in order to help the economy grow and tackle the problems associated with an ageing population. The Scottish Government has set a target to match population growth in the EU15 over the period 2007 to 2017.10 When the Scottish Government’s Minister for International Development and Europe, Dr Alasdair Allan MSP, appeared before us he said:
We are conscious of the fact that for the long-term health of the economy, population growth is a reasonable thing for us to seek to do, the way that other European countries do. The reason behind it is obviously to grow our workforce and also to address our ageing population demographic.11
11.The Minister for International Development and Europe in the Scottish Government confirmed that Scotland was meeting those targets. Since 2007, average population growth rates for Scotland and EU15 have been 0.49% and 0.38% respectively.12 The Minister went on to say that “what is in our mind now is how the longer term pans out and how the graph starts to look for us in the years between now and 2039”.13
12.Some of our witnesses praised the Scottish Government for setting a population target. Professor Alan Findlay said “I am glad Scotland has a target; it is a very positive thing to have an aspiration to be demographically healthy”.14 There were, however, some witnesses who were either critical of the target or felt that further action was also needed. David Watt, Executive Director for the Institute of Directors in Scotland, stressed the importance of considering the skills of a population, as well as its size. He told us that:
About a third of Scotland’s business and organisational leaders and entrepreneurs will be retiring […] by 2023. That figure is very scary. We are losing that senior level of expertise from organisations, so we need to encourage more business start-ups to try to replace them. […] The Government are trying and it is vitally important to attracting people and creating, […], that sort of economic ecoculture where people will believe that they can come and work and stay in work in Scotland and not leave.15
13.The UK Government suggested that setting a population target was not, in itself, enough to encourage population growth. The Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mundell MP, told us:
I accept the Scottish Government have every right to set that target. I want to see an end to population decline in parts of Scotland, but I do not believe that setting a target will simply achieve the outcome, particularly if that target cannot achieve a distribution within Scotland.16
14.As well as the Scottish Government’s population targets, we heard that local authority areas in Scotland are setting their own targets for population growth. Lorraine Cooke from COSLA stated:
When I was asked to give evidence, I looked at all our member local authorities’ single outcome agreements and around half of them had population growth targets as a key outcome within their SOAs (Single Outcome Agreements), if not the key outcome within it.17
COSLA’s written evidence highlighted efforts by some local authorities to attract new residents to fill specific demographic or skills gaps. Angus Council, for example, reported that it was particularly keen to attract people to fill seasonal agricultural vacancies, as “the local agricultural economy relies heavily on seasonal migrants due to the reluctance of the indigenous population to do this work. The number of migrants can reach 3,000 or so over the season”.18
15.None of our witnesses was able to tell us the optimum population size for Scotland. Professor Jim Hunter, Emeritus Professor of History at the University of the Highlands and Islands, thought that establishing an optimum was very difficult, and that it would vary depending on what economic goals were being pursued. He told us:
Optimum levels of population are very difficult concepts. It used to be argued by historians—with whom I passionately disagree—that all that happened here [in the Highlands and Islands] in the past was all perhaps a bit difficult but it was inevitable because the population had exceeded the capacity of the land to sustain it. Well, the population of London exceeded the capacity of the London area to grow potatoes and turnips a heck of a long time ago, so it depends entirely what sort of economy you are looking to create here.19
16.One of our witnesses, Andrew MacNaughton from Population Matters, argued against population growth as a solution to Scotland’s demographic challenges, believing that it would be better to address the current challenges by other means such as encouraging more efficient use of the existing labour pool. He told us:
From our perspective, it is about dealing with that transition rather than maybe saying we can stop this transition from taking place through migration and increasing population. At some point that is equivalent to a Ponzi scheme, where you continually need to grow the population to meet the demands of people who are passing out of working age and young people who you need to support through the taxes from those who work. That cannot keep going forever. We do have to face up to this issue at some point.20
17.We agree with the majority of our witnesses that Scotland’s growing population is a positive development after historic population decline. Population growth and further reducing the number of residents in Scotland who choose to migrate to other parts of the UK are important parts of meeting Scotland’s demographic challenges and ensuring Scotland’s economy and society have a thriving future.
Population overview
18.Scotland’s population is at its highest ever level, standing at 5.37 million.21 Over the last 100 years, Scotland has generally experienced slow population growth. Notable exceptions are during the Second World War and a period lasting from the late 1970s to the early 2000s when it experienced periods of population decline. Figures show that since 2004 population growth in Scotland has increased in pace.22
Figure 1: Scotland’s population change over last 100 years.
Source: National records of Scotland, ‘Population Estimates Time Series Data’, accessed 17 November 2016
19.A key characteristic of Scotland’s population growth is that this growth has been concentrated in particular areas. In 2005–2015, Scotland’s overall population increased by 5.1%. In East Lothian the growth was 11.1% and in Edinburgh 11.0%. Over the same period, Inverclyde and Argyll and Bute saw a population decline of 3.8%. The graph below shows the predicted population change in the 32 Scottish council areas, as well as in Scotland as a whole over the next 25 years. It highlights that although Scotland’s population will continue to grow, growth will continue to be focused in particular areas.
Figure 2: Projected percentage change in total population by council area, 2014–2039
Source: National Records of Scotland, ‘Population Projections for Scottish Areas’, accessed 17 November 2016
20.Another feature of Scotland’s demography is that it has one of the lowest population densities in the European Union.23 There is a large variation in population density across Scotland. National Records of Scotland say that “over 90% of people in Scotland live within settlements24 [which] account for less than 3% of Scotland’s area”.25 More than half of Scotland’s population is concentrated in the ‘Central Belt’ which includes Greater Glasgow, Ayrshire, Falkirk, Edinburgh, Lothian and Fife. Greater Glasgow itself has an estimated population of 1.2 million, one quarter of Scotland’s total population. In rural Scotland the population density is extremely low. For example, Alistair Danter, Area Business Manager for Skye and Lochalsh for Highlands Council told us that “Sutherland has a population density of something like two people per square kilometre. That is three less than the West African state of Mali, which is two-thirds Sahara Desert”.26 In these areas of low population density economic development is particularly challenging.
Comparison with the rest of the UK
21.When compared to the UK as a whole, Scotland’s population is predicted to grow at a slower rate. National Records Scotland, in their evidence to us, stated that:
The UK population is projected to increase from an estimated 64.6 million in 2014 to above 70 million in 2027 and reaching 74.3 million by 2039—an increase of 15% over a 25 year period. Scotland’s population is predicted to grow by 6% during the same period.27
22.Population change in the four countries that make up the United Kingdom can be seen in the graph below.
Figure 3: Population projections 2014–2039
Source: Office for National Statistics, ‘National Population Projections: 2014-based Statistical Bulletin’, accessed 17 November 2016
23.National Records of Scotland attribute the difference in population growth between Scotland and England to much higher growth in London, saying that “recent 2012-based sub-national population projections for England show clear differences between trends in London and England as a whole”.28 The graph below shows, however, that even with London population growth removed, the population of England is still growing at a faster rate than that of Scotland. England does, like Scotland, have significant regional variation. Areas in the North East and North West of England are expected to grow at an almost identical rate to Scotland (7% in the next 25 years) and at a much slower rate than London and the South-East.
Figure 4: Population projections (England without London and London separately)
Source: Office for National Statistics, ‘Subnational Population Projections for Local Authorities in England’, accessed 17 November 2016
24.Whilst Scotland’s population growth is slower than the rate for the UK as a whole, Professor Bell, Royal Society of Edinburgh, emphasised that it is still increasing more swiftly than in many other countries in Europe. He told us that:
Scotland is falling behind the rest of the UK because the rest of the UK is growing more rapidly than almost anywhere else in Europe. By the mid-2040s, according to the Eurostat projections, the UK will be the largest country in population terms in Europe. Scotland is growing but it is growing as part of a country that, based on current assumptions, […] is growing more rapidly than the rest of Europe.29
Fertility
25.One reason Scotland’s population is growing at a much slower rate than the rest of the UK is that the fertility rate, the number children born to women in Scotland, is lower than that that for the rest of the UK. The figure for Scotland is 1.7 children per woman compared with 1.89 for the UK as a whole.30 It is commonly accepted that a fertility rate of 2.1 will sustain a population. Professor Bell, from the Royal Society of Edinburgh, told us that:
The UK birth rate or total fertility rate—how many children a woman will have over her lifetime—is about 1.8. Spain is 1.3, Germany 1.47, Italy 1.37, Portugal is down to 1.23 and the EU average is 1.58. So first, the UK has quite a high birth rate. Scotland is 1.62, so it is above a lot of European countries, but it is behind the rest of the UK.31
26.Whilst some of our witnesses suggested that the Government could provide incentives which encourage people to have larger families, most of our witnesses were against the idea.32 Professor Findlay, University of St Andrews, told us, “I do not advocate having a policy on fertility increase”.33 Written evidence from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries suggested that, although “coercive policies [to lower fertility rates] have had a dramatic effect on fertility rates, the pro-natalist policies have tended to have a limited impact”.34 They went on to suggest that policies which made it easier for women to combine motherhood and a career and which promoted availability of affordable housing and child care were more successful at increasing fertility rates.35
27.It is clear to us that, taking into account the birth rate trends and the age profile of the population in Scotland, natural change in population cannot provide the population growth that Scotland needs. We accept that policies which aim to encourage people to have more children have limited impact on increasing the population. Those which are most effective are policies that support working parents and make it easier for women to return to work after having children.
Migration
28.Migration is already an important factor in Scotland’s population growth, and it is likely to become more important in the future. A consequence of Scotland’s lower fertility rates is that the rate of natural population increase will be lower than other regions in the UK. To match population growth with the UK as a whole, a greater proportion of the increase will have to come through net immigration.
29.National Records Scotland told us:
If current trends continue, 10% of the projected increase in Scotland’s population between 2014 and 2039 is attributed to natural increase (more births than deaths) while 90% of the increase is due to assuming continuing inward net migration to Scotland (57% from international migration and 32% from cross-border migration with the rest of the UK).36
30.The Scottish Government said:
The point is that in Scotland most of our population growth is supported by inward migration. […] we need the UK Government to deliver an immigration system that meets Scotland’s needs because we depend so heavily on new Scots to support our economy and our communities. The Scottish Government certainly does not share the UK Government’s concern about driving down migration at any cost. In Scotland, I want to put on the record that we welcome migrants and the important role that they play in our businesses and communities.37
Scotland’s ability to attract migrants
31.The trend for migration in Scotland is net inward migration, demonstrating that to many people Scotland is an attractive place to live and work. Migration to Scotland is, however, much lower compared with other parts of the UK, in particular London and the South East. In the year 2014–15 (the most recent period for which figures are available), net inward migration to Scotland was 27,968, whilst net migration to England was 298,882.38 Some of our witnesses expressed concern about Scotland’s ability to attract migrants. Professor Alan Findlay told us that “my argument would be that the main reason Scotland’s population falls somewhat differently from the rest of the United Kingdom is because of the lack of ability to attract migrants”.39
32.The Scottish Government told us that the “the peak age for migration into Scotland from the UK is 19, which does suggest people who are coming to university or perhaps taking up a first job, but more likely coming to university or college. The peak age for migration into Scotland from overseas is 23”.40
33.The graph below shows that many people move to Scotland in their late teens and early 20s but move out of Scotland afterwards, which supports the argument that people move to Scotland for university but do not remain after graduation. The table below shows a spike around university age for inward migration, which then drops off, turning into a smaller negative spike for those aged 23 to 27. This is a similar trend to university towns, where people are attracted to a city for educational opportunities but do not remain there afterwards.
Figure 5: All Migrants, by single year of age (the rest of the UK) 2014–2015
Source: National Records of Scotland, ‘Migration between Scotland and the Rest of the UK’, accessed 17 November 2016
34.The Scottish Government Minister for International Development and Europe told us that a number of bodies were analysing migration trends to identify why people were leaving Scotland in their early twenties, saying:
Our enterprise agency, our universities and others are all doing analysis of this. Obviously, some people who leave will be people who are leaving to study. Some people will be leaving to take up a job offer after university. There will be all sorts of reasons, and certainly the universities and our enterprise agencies do look at those and collate the data and, indeed, records are always made of all sorts of information from the census and all sorts of stuff as well.41
35.The Minister also acknowledged that:
We have to work as a Government, as a society in Scotland, to make sure that people feel that they have the opportunities to get jobs when they leave university and that they understand what the opportunities are. Certainly, the Government work very hard on that. I was really just pointing to the fact that we are in a healthier position than we have been at some points in the past.42
36.We welcome the work the Scottish Government is doing to identify reasons for outward migration from Scotland. We acknowledge its commitment to developing further employment opportunities in order to create the environment to help retain a greater number of people who have moved to Scotland from both the rest of the UK and overseas.
Devolution of migration policy
37. Immigration policy is a reserved matter and there is a UK-wide immigration system. The Scottish Government has consistently argued that this system does not meet Scotland’s needs and that Scotland would benefit from a more tailored approach. It told us that immigration was:
An essential plank of our economic and demographic health that is outwith the control of the Scottish Government. That is why we need the UK Government to deliver an immigration system that meets Scotland’s needs because we depend so heavily on new Scots to support our economy and our communities.43
38.Other witnesses agreed that a tailored immigration policy would benefit Scotland and suggested that regional flexibility or devolution of immigration policy could ensure a system which would better meet Scotland’s needs. Lorraine Cook, from the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA), argued that “regional [immigration] flexibilities would be beneficial […] south-east-based [immigration] policy […] is not reflective of Scotland”.44 Professor Findlay said that migration policy should be devolved, arguing that “the United Kingdom would benefit if regional labour markets were able to be more influential in shaping their immigration policies”.45
39.Professor Findlay suggested that a ‘points based system’, similar to the Australian immigration system, could enable regional variation which could benefit Scotland. He told us that:
The Scottish White Paper ahead of the Scottish referendum recommended a points-based system and now we seem to have people within the Brexit part of the House of Commons who favour a points-based system. One of the most important features that the Committee should note is that the point-based systems in both Australia and Canada have embedded as central to them having the ability to have regional differences in the points that are used.46
40.Professor Findlay went on to argue that regional migration policies “are much more successful than immigration policies that suggest one size fits all”.47 He highlighted some of the advantages of this flexibility:
The benefits are clearly that you can tailor the policy to the particular needs of the economy and the particular situation that society is in. I think it is very hard to argue against any territory being better off if it can tailor a policy on immigration. When you look around the world, very often where you have a very large city surrounded by regions whose cities do not have global status, you do get differential policies.48
41.The UK Government confirmed it had no intention of devolving immigration policy.49 The Minister for Immigration told us that “having a separate immigration policy for Scotland is not something that we feel would be appropriate”.50
42.There is a case for sub-national migration powers for Scotland to be further considered based on the evidence we have received, but this Committee makes no recommendations about the shape of that policy. We call for closer co-operation between the UK and Scottish Governments on this issue.
Post-study work schemes in Scotland
43.Our very first inquiry of this Parliament was the Work of the Scottish Affairs Committee. We set out, over the course of that inquiry, to ask the public what issues we should look at. One of these issues was post-study work schemes for students at Scottish universities. The Smith Commission report has also said that the UK and Scottish Governments should work together to “explore the possibility of introducing formal schemes to allow international higher education students graduating from Scottish further and higher education institutions to remain in Scotland and contribute to economic activity for a defined period of time”.51 We published our report on Post-study work schemes in February 2016.52 The report reflected the evidence we had heard that the existing route for international graduates to work in Scotland did not meet the needs of Scottish businesses, Scottish universities or the students themselves. Our report called for an improved post-study work scheme that would better meet Scottish needs and recommended that the UK Government work with the Scottish Government to develop such a scheme.
44.The UK Government responded to our report on post-study work schemes on 19 October 2016. Unfortunately, this meant that we were unable to question the Minister in detail about the response when he appeared before us to give evidence to this inquiry. The Government response makes clear that the UK Government believes that the current system is excellent, and already meets the needs of Scottish universities and the Scottish economy more widely.53 This position contrasts with the evidence we received during our inquiry into post-study work schemes,54 and also stands in stark opposition to the views expressed by all of Scotland’s main political parties.55
45.We were disappointed by the UK Government’s response to our report on post-study work schemes. We would recommend that the UK Government revisits our report to see what measures should be taken forward.
46.Throughout this inquiry, many of our witnesses reiterated the call we made for the UK Government to improve post-study work options for non-EU students attending Scottish HEIs. Lorraine Cook, one of these witnesses, stated:
We have supported it [a post-study work scheme] and Edinburgh [University] gave evidence to the post-study work visa inquiry on the importance of it and it being wider than a paucity of skilled people or skilled workforce but the whole social and cultural benefits that we are losing.56
47.Business leaders were also supportive of improving post-study work schemes, arguing that students applying for graduate visas are normally highly educated and an asset to the economy. David Watt, Executive Director for the Institute of Directors (IoD) in Scotland, told us:
We are very strongly in favour of re-establishing the post-study work visa. I know there has been a ruling at the present not to do that and I think it is disadvantageous. In fact, the IoD across the whole of the UK is pretty much in favour of removing students from the immigration cap anyway. We do not think is terribly helpful in any part of the UK but certainly not in Scotland. People who are coming to study, in some cases to the highest level, have a lot to offer to the country. They have come to study and will want to stay in the country and cannot. We are very keen to see the UK Government do what they can to try to consider students very sympathetically.57
48.The lack of progress on reforming the current post-study work route for students in Scotland is all the more disappointing given that, in July 2016, the Home Office launched a pilot to allow graduates from master’s courses at the University of Bath, University of Cambridge, University of Oxford and Imperial College London extra time to find work in the UK after graduation (raising the limit from four months to six months). When we asked the Scottish Government Minister for International Development and Europe if the Scottish Government had been consulted about the scheme he said they had not and went on to say that:
It would have been nice to have been asked about it. It would have been helpful. It would certainly have been helpful to see a wider number of universities involved. The inclusion of some of the Scottish universities would have been good.58
49.The UK Government told us that “the basis on which these institutions were chosen was those with a consistently low level of visa refusals”.59 The UK Government has promised that, should the pilot be successful they would consider extending the scheme. The Minister for Immigration acknowledged that “there are a number of universities in Scotland that also have low visa refusal levels and, therefore, if we extended it, there would be no reason to expect that that would not include a number of blue-chip, world-class Scotland universities”.60
50.We have heard repeated demands for the UK Government to improve the post-study work route for non-EU students attending Scottish universities who wish to remain in Scotland to work. This belies the Government’s assertion that current arrangements are “excellent”, and makes it all the more remarkable that the new pilot scheme which makes improvements to the Tier 4 visa for eligible master’s students did not include a criteria that would have allowed a Scottish university to be involved.
51.We restate our call for the UK Government to work constructively with the Scottish Government to explore the possibility of introducing a formal scheme to allow international higher education students graduating from Scottish further and higher education institutions to remain in Scotland and contribute to economic activity for a defined period of time, as set out in the Smith Commission Report.
Other reasons for failing to attract migrants
52.The devolution of migration policy is not the only way to increase inward migration to Scotland. England, in particular London, seems to be able to attract and retain a greater share of migrants to the UK than Scotland. Fraser Grieve, Scottish Council for Development and Industry, suggested that one reason could be a lack of areas offering multiple employment opportunities rather than areas which are instead reliant on a small number of employers. He told us that “people want to know that when they move to an area they are not just moving to one employer, and that if that job does not work out whether there are other options available”.61
53.The UK Government has suggested the Scottish Government already has sufficient policy levers to attract people to Scotland. In evidence to the Committee’s inquiry on Revising Scotland’s fiscal framework,62 the then Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Greg Hands MP, stated:
I think the Scottish Government should have and does have levers to increase its population, and it is not just me saying that. When the Deputy First Minister was in front of the Scottish Parliament Finance Committee last June and was asked about population risk he said, “It is another of the wide range of risks that we take on as a consequence of gaining the responsibilities”, actually taking responsibility because population is not just about immigration. Population is also about being able to do things like grow your economy, use planning powers, which the Scottish Government has. It is about housing powers, which the Scottish has. It is about the high quality universities in Scotland and the high quality skills base.63
54.The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries also suggested that Scotland does have some ability to attract migrants. It noted that the data provided by National Records Scotland showed that “Scotland is able to attract more people of working age than it loses”.64 It suggested that among the reasons people chose to live in Scotland are job opportunities, standard of living, tax rates (individual and corporate), government services, benefits, climate, culture and political stability and security, things which the Scottish Government has at least some control over.
55.In contrast to this view, Dr Lisenkova, senior research fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, told us that Scotland was hampered in growing its population by limited powers. She said that even at a UK level “demographic policy is very difficult” but that this was “even more complex and difficult in the context of Scotland with the limited powers that Scotland has at the moment”.65
56.We acknowledge that the Scottish Government has levers and powers which it could use to help obtain its objective of growing its population. Indeed, due to the devolution settlement, the Scottish Government has many such powers. There are, however, a number of policy levers that are held by the UK Government. The Scottish Government and the UK Governments should work together to achieve continued population growth in Scotland.
Impact of Brexit
57.Whilst much of our evidence was taken before the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, we discussed with some of our witnesses the potential impact. This will, of course, depend on the agreement reached on exiting the EU. The Scottish Government suggested that leaving the EU would reduce migration to Scotland. A paper produced by the Scottish Government, Potential Implications of the UK Leaving the EU on Scotland’s Long Run Economic Performance, stated that leaving the EU “could potentially increase the cost of exporting to key European markets, reduce the country’s attractiveness to overseas investors and impose new restriction on labour, increasing skills shortages and reducing productivity”.66
58.The Scottish Government Minister for International Development was also concerned about the impact and said:
We have 180,000 people within Scotland from other European countries who are currently maybe concerned about what all this means for them and their families and who are already, in many cases, beginning to find it difficult to get mortgages.67
He went on to call on the UK Government to make a commitment that EU citizens currently living in Scotland will be able to remain after Britain leaves the European Union.
59.The Secretary of State for Scotland told us that the Government has had discussion with stakeholders in Scotland on the impact of leaving the EU. He acknowledged that “migration is one of the issues they have raised in those discussions”.68 He also stated that “on immigration and Brexit, the Home Office is taking the lead in that [and], working very closely with the new Brexit Department”.69
60.The extent of the impact that the UK leaving the European Union will have on Scotland is unclear; however, some witnesses, including the Scottish Government, have expressed concerns that it will have a negative impact on levels of inward migration. The Government should ensure that, as part of preparations for the UK to leave the EU, they take the opportunity to work with the Scottish Government to ensure that any new immigration policies meet the needs of Scotland as well as the UK as a whole.
4 The dependency ratio is the number of people aged under 16 and those of state pension age compared with working age people.
10 The EU15 comprises of the following 15 countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom.
11 Q284
12 Q279
13 Q279
14 Q197
15 Q167
16 Q318
17 Q169
19 Q212
20 Q6
21 National Records of Scotland, ‘Mid-year population estimates—Scotland, all ages by sex: 1855 to 2015’, accessed 18 November 2016
22 In 2004 the EU saw its biggest enlargement to date when Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joined.
23 Population density is defined as the number of people per square kilometre.
24 A settlement is defined to be a group of high density postcodes whose combined population rounds to 500 people or more.
26 Q216
29 Q1
30 National records of Scotland, ‘Scotland’s Population 2011’, accessed November 2016
31 Q2
33 Q198
37 Q274
38 Staff analysis of Office for National Statistics, ‘Local Area Migration Indicators, UK’, accessed 18 November 2016
39 Q169
40 Q294
41 Q293
42 Q294
43 Q174
44 Q193
45 Q193
46 Q171
47 Q178
48 Q178
49 Q353
50 Q317
51 The Smith Commission, Report of the Smith Commission for further devolution of powers to the Scottish Parliament (November 2014), p 28
52 Scottish Affairs Committee, First Report of Session 2015–16, Work of the Scottish Affairs Committee, HC 331
53 Scottish Affairs Committee, Second Special Report of Session 2016–17, Post-study work schemes: Government response to the Committee’s Fourth Report of Session 2015–16, HC 787
54 Scottish Affairs Committee, Fourth Report of Session 2015–16, Post-study work schemes, HC 593, para 39
55 Scottish Government, Post Study Work Steering Group Report of Final Recommendations, March 2016
56 Q194
57 Q141
58 Q301
59 Q334
60 Q336
61 Q142
62 Scottish Affairs Committee, ‘Revising Scotland’s fiscal framework inquiry’, accessed 18 November 2016
63 Q186
65 Q122
66 Scottish Government, Potential Implications of the UK Leaving the EU on Scotland’s Long Run Economic Performance (August 2016), p 3
67 Q310
68 Q352
69 Q362
28 November 2016