Examination of Witnesses (Questions 7000
7000. CHAIRMAN: Most of us know all too
7001. MR CAMERON: At page 40 there is
a generalised map, I do not know whether you can show it on that.24
(Mr Donovan) Yes, I can do it. For my sins,
Bluewater is actually my local personal shopping centre, I only
live a mile away from it. It is shown on that map around about
where the "12" is, the red "12".
7002. LORD JAMES OF BLACKHEATH: So does
it have any traffic implications for you?
No. The reason is that it is so far away they are dampened down
by the time it gets there. It certainly has traffic implications
for those of us who live around it, but in terms of the traffic
implications further in it does not have direct impact, apart
from possibly on the routes through the north of the borough on
a Saturday, but even there I have travelled into Bexley frequently
from the Bluewater area on a Saturday and Bluewater itself is
not having any impact. The impacts we have had in Bexley from
Bluewater have all been around the work we have had to do to safeguard
particularly Bexley Heath, our strategic centre, from the retail
impact of Bluewater rather than the actual traffic impact.
7003. MR CAMERON: Can we move on to page
The point has been made to you that even if the amendment is made
it will take a very long time for Crossrail to come to Bexley
and what are Bexley doing in the meantime. What does page 39 show
(Mr Donovan) I have already explained some
of the things we are doing in terms of lobbying strongly around
the transport agenda. These are examples of some of the regeneration
programmes that we are able to negotiate and draw down from Communities
and Local Government. Some of these schemes involve funding from
the Mayor of London and at the moment we have got some European
funding and are looking to put in European Regional Development
Funding bids as well. It is a constantly changing programme of
regeneration schemes. Some or all of those would be hugely benefited,
from our point of view, by Crossrail going east of Abbey Wood.
7004. The next page, page 40, is headed "Benefits
The Committee has already seen that page. Then there is a series
of pages, "Benefits of Crossrail" and we can see from
the notes the source for this is the Crossrail Business Case summary
of September 2003. I will lead you on this. At that time the route
to Ebbsfleet formed part of the Crossrail proposal. Have I got
(Mr Donovan) Yes.
7005. Can we turn over the page and see what
Crossrail themselves were saying about the effect on You
identified Belvedere and Swanscombe as examples.27
What does page 41 show the Committee?
(Mr Donovan) Page 41 shows that there would
be improvements in accessibility from Crossrail and, interestingly,
Belvedere and Swanscombe are shown to have much bigger increases
in accessibility in terms of the percentage increase in the population
that would be within a 45 minute travel time and also the average
time savings are greater in those areas as well. This is an indication,
in a sense, that you are providing such a huge uplift in accessibility
for those areas that the numbers are quite big. In a lot of the
other places, to some degree accessibility is not quite the issue
Crossrail is addressing.
7006. If we turn over the page, impact on jobs,
again Crossrail's own figures, what were the predictions for increases
in regeneration jobs?28
(Mr Donovan) The unweighted figures which are
shown on table 42 suggest over 10,000 jobs in Belvedere and 11,000
within the Ebbsfleet and Swanscombe area.
7007. Then we find the weighting on the next
(Mr Donovan) It is around the judgment on how
that is going to work in practice taking local circumstances.
There is some dampening of the Belvedere jobs but, as you can
see, an increase in the Swanscombe jobs, so the total benefits
drop under the weighting from around about 21,600 or so to 19,000,
but still substantial as a proportion of the overall total number
7008. If we go to page 44, that is a proportion
of people who are unemployed and economically inactive who get
jobs as a result of Crossrail.30
(Mr Donovan) Yes, particularly in Belvedere
where there is a residual group, if you like, of economically
inactive and unemployed and it has been suggested a large proportion
of those jobs would come to them.
7009. That was the position at the time that
Crossrail were proposing to go to Ebbsfleet. Turn over the page
to page 45 and we deal with the consequences if Crossrail terminates
at Abbey Wood.31
What are the consequences? Just take us through the next few pages.32
(Mr Donovan) This is the one I was mentioning
earlier where travelling west to jobs you would expect, as the
Petitioner said earlier, in the end you would have a very short
interchange penalty there. As I understand it, five minutes is
the average that is worked out. Coming the other way, the interchange
penalties would increase enormously because you would have to
get off the train at Abbey Wood and then have a relatively long
wait to pick up a train going eastwards. The next few tables indicate
in some detail the headways and how that would work in practice.
7010. So in very rough terms, if you are going
one way you would have to wait 15 minutes and if you are going
the other way you would have to wait five minutes.
(Mr Donovan) That would be right, yes.
7011. How long does the journey take from Abbey
Wood to Belvedere?
(Mr Donovan) Two and a half minutes.
7012. So you have to wait 15 minutes to get
on a train which then takes two and a half minutes to take you
(Mr Donovan) Yes.
7013. CHAIRMAN: Before you move on, there
is a whole collection of tables from the Crossrail July 2003 presentations
with the extension to Ebbsfleet. What would be the situation without
it for the moment, but taking account of the other things that
Bexley Council is trying to put in place? Have you got a parallel
Of the current situation?
7014. The various points that were put forward
in these 2003 tables.
(Mr Donovan) I think the straight answer
is we do not have a direct table in those terms, but we will always
be working to seek to achieve the job totals that are within the
Mayor's overall framework and with housing. It is partly also
about quality, as I said earlier on, that Crossrail would enable
us to change the nature of the jobs; it would change the types
of jobs as much as the numbers.
7015. I am perfectly well aware of this. You
have got in hand a collection of plans in relation to jobs, transport
and so on, which do not take account of Crossrail going to Ebbsfleet
at the moment.
(Mr Donovan) No.
7016. What would be the parallel figures to
those that are shown in the 2003 tables? Supposing you were successful,
you must have planning figures.
(Mr Donovan) We have planning figures
for housing at borough level. It is difficult to disaggregate
the borough level figures at the moment. We would be seeking in
the north part of the borough and anticipating over that period
3,000 or so houses. Jobs would vary quite a bit depending on other
assumptions but several thousand. It is difficult to be absolutely
precise over a period as long as that. We have target figures,
but in terms of actual outcome figures it would be difficult to
be more precise than that.
7017. You have no planning figures?
(Mr Donovan) For?
7018. For all these criteria that you have listed
from the July 2003 Crossrail papers. Supposing it does not happen
for the moment, have you got planning figures which are parallel
to the figures you have put in here?
(Mr Donovan) It is difficult to be precise
7019. Yes, of course it is, but I am asking
about planning figures.
(Mr Donovan) The ones we are assuming.
Up to 2016 we are assuming about 5,000 houses borough-wide and
we would be assuming planning for increased jobs of around about
23 24 Committee Ref: A35, Benefits of Crossrail 1(BEXYLB-44_05A-040) Back
25 Committee Ref: A35, Existing Regeneration Initiatives (BEXYLB-44_05A-039) Back
26 Committee Ref: A35, Benefits of Crossrail 1(BEXYLB-44_05A-040) Back
27 Committee Ref: A35, Benefits of Crossrail 2: Accessibility
and time savings (BEXYLB-44_05A-041) Back
28 Committee Ref: A35, Benefits of Crossrail 3: Increase in employment
(unweighted) (BEXYLB-44_05A-042) Back
29 Committee Ref: A35, Benefits of Crossrail 4: Increase in employment
(weighted) (BEXYLB-44_05A-043) Back
30 Committee Ref: A35, Benefits of Crossrail 5: Take up of employment
by unemployed (BEXYLB-44_05A-044) Back
31 Committee Ref: A35, Population & Employment west of Belvedere
(1) (BEXYLB-44_05A-045) Back
32 Committee Ref: A35, Population & Employment west of Belvedere
(2) (BEXYLB-44_05A-046) Back