Memorandum by the Campaign to Protect
Rural England, Devon
Security of Supply of Energy is at risk, as
indeed is Security of Supply of Food. We are aware of capacity
gap foreseen by EDF for 2015, and of capacity shortfall currently
in South Africa where there is civil unrest. We are also aware
of the outages that occurred on 27 May. Irrespective of Climate
Change, there is clearly a need to build proper power stations
now in UK.
Renewables do have a role to play, but will
not replace capacity nor do base load. In Devon, we have been
opposing on-shore wind turbines on landscape grounds and on generation
(load factor) grounds. With knowledge of the wind availability,
it is possible to calculate load factor (LF). Some turbines will
not reach the subsidised financial break even of LF 18%. This
would lead to the abandonment of these large machines in our countryside;
all of them, if ROC subsidy is withdrawn, as LF needed is 40%.
We do support nuclear power. However, there
does need to be clarification of various factors, including:
(a) Waste disposal—glassification etc.
(b) Regulation—acceptance (or not) of French/US
A certification for EPR 1600/AP1000. as timescale is crucial.
(c) Market—confirmed price and market for
nuclear electricity.
This is probably not the place to question the
Climate Change dogma, but pursuing Renewables to reduce CO2 is
massively expensive. No doubt the committee has this in mind.
INTRODUCTION
Set out below are comments upon questions raised
by HL Committee in the note dated 25 April
2008. Numbered paragraphs reflect the list of issues
mentioned.
1. UK Energy Policy
There is no such specific policy. Instead we
have a market experiment, with priority given to reduction of
C02 emissions, based upon morbid fixation of the fear of "Climate
Change". Totally irrespective of Climate Change, UK needs
to concentrate on Security of Supply and build some proper Power
Stations. A possible mix would be 30-30-30-10 (Coal, Gas, Nuclear,
Renewables) based upon capacity ie MW.
One needs to define what are "Renewables"—eg
Wind, Wave, Solar, Tidal—all of which are intermittent,
so that none of them will do Base Load. The Royal Academy of Engineering
("RAE") talks about "Nuclear and other Renewables".
Although 95% of used nuclear fuel can be reprocessed and reused,
Nuclear probably does not come within the ambit of the common
use of the phrase "Renewables". Then there is Waste
(agricultural, food, etc), Bio fuels (timber, husks etc), which
attract ROC's, and probably should be entitled Surplus Products.
Hydro is the only firm and reliable renewable source.
The USA has a similar lack of proper Energy
Policy.
2. Greater use of Renewables
Renewables do have a role to play, but (other
than Hydro) will never replace Capacity (MW). Use of Wind Turbines
in a local grid, such as Avonmouth Docks, contributes some Energy
(MWH), with excess being exported to the National Grid. This is
a form of load amelioration.
The maximum amount of Wind input which could
be accepted by the UK Grid is probably about 15% (c 1OGW) due
wind's stochastic intermittency. Ireland has stopped at 5%. Germany
has planned 48,000 MW of wind, but needs to build 46,000 MW of
standby generation. There is a case for CHP for new build Housing
estates, but dissipation of heat in summer has to be dealt with.
3. Promote Renewables
Micro generation schemes are useful in remote
parts, but are generally expensive. Tidal streams energy limit
for UK has been assessed by ENTEC as 18TWHpa, and Tidal Barrage
as 19TWH. Total electricity usage is c 390TWH (2007). Of the Tidal,
Severn Barrage of 8,640MW could produce 17TWH at 22½% Load
Factor, but would be very expensive at c £15 billion, and
would not do Base Load. This energy output of 17TWH could be produced
by 2 in no. modern nuclear stations for 1/3
cost, which would do Base Load.
The ROC system is an indirect subsidy, so not
illegal state aid. The consumer pays it, thus increasing fuel
poverty. It is a clumsy tool, which stifles innovation and primarily
promotes Wind Turbines. It would be best to drop the ROC system,
as Ofgem recommend.
It is possible to obtain from the Met Office
for certain places, such as Airports, detail of Wind availability.
Below 10 knots, wind turbines effectively do not generate and
Power relates to the cube of Wind speed, with 100% power at about
25 knots. From the wind data, one can calculate Load Factor—but
LF is not related to Mean Wind Speed, as that is a different graph.
Knowing the capital cost, maintenance costs of wind turbines,
sale price of electricity, ROC subsidy, one can calculate the
financial breakeven figure for LF to be c 18%. If the ROC subsidy
is removed, breakeven is LF c 40%. As wind turbines do not do
what it says on the tin, many are likely to be abandoned as LF
is average c 27% maximum.
4. Grid Investment
Recent information indicates that the 16GW of
Wind Turbines in the pipeline for Scotland would require Grid
investment of c £4 billion. That for the UK overall would
be c £9 billion. Add the £30 billion of the ROC system,
produces large expenditure related to Renewables.
One needs to consider the balance of cost vs
gain. For instance, the capital cost of onshore wind would move
from c £l.2M/MW to c £1.5M/MW. If current power station
sites can be used, so can the current infrastructure, with consequent
reduction in grid expenditure.
5. External Costs
In Devonshire, Tourism is the second biggest
employer behind the Civil Service ie Government. Farming comes
third. The spend on Tourism in Devon is about £2.2 billion
per annum, of which about £520 million goes on accommodation.
An important segment is the walkers/hikers. All of the tourists
come to enjoy the tranquillity and good landscape. These assets
are damaged by unsightly and moving wind turbines, which can be
seen from afar. Once the tourists have decided to leave the area,
they will not return, as people do have habits.
Near to Wind turbines, land values fail. Damages
have been successfully claimed in court, because of failure to
mention the turbines prior to sale. This means inter alia loss
of revenue (rates) to local authorities and loss of value of property.
6. Cost Renewables
The table attached sets out costs and other
factors of Renewable and Conventional Sources of Energy. These
average figures are derived from sources such as RAE and IPA consultants.
They do not include additional costs for renewables due extra
grid costs, but do include standby generation.
Load factor is important for the return on investment.
Generally for Renewables that achieved will be c 25%, and for
proper Power stations 65%-95%.
7. Biofuels
Research is underway through Imperial College
and the Porter Institute to improve yield of Biomass and enhance
output. This includes considering synthetic fuels from gas or
coal to produce Biobutanol, with an energy content of 29 MJ/litre,
compared to alcohol at 19.6 and gasoline at 32. The aim is to
reduce cost from c $4/litre to $.6/Iitre. Work is also underway
on bio-plastics, which has intellectual property aspects for licensing.
Concern has been expressed that corn should
be retained for food, where security of supply is also at risk,
rather than use for fuel. It is however important to keep the
Farmers in being, and use of corn can be changed. Note also that
about 140 years ago 30% of the USA energy burn was corn for horses,
for transport. Plus ca change.
ELECTRICITY GENERATION—COSTS
|
| Source | C02
| Base Load | Capex £M/MW
| O & M £/KW
| Levelised
.p/KWH
|
|
| Severn Barrage (Cardiff) | 0
| No | 2.5
| 14 | 11
|
| Severn Barrage (Chepstow) | 0
| No | 2.5
| 14 | 10
|
| Lagoon (SB) | 0
| No | [2.5]
| — | [7.5]
|
| Tidal Stream | 0
| No | 1.3
| 50 | 6.1
|
| On Shore Wind | 0
| No | 1.2
| 48 | 5.4
|
| OffShore Wind | 0
| No | 1.7
| 56 | 10
|
| Wave | 0 |
No | 3.1
| [56] | 21
|
| Bio/Waste | .20
| Possibly | 2.7
| 25 | 7.5
|
| Nuclear | 0 |
Yes | 1.5
| 48 | 3.7
|
| Coal | .86 |
Yes | 1.0
| 25 | 5.1
|
| Gas | .34 |
Yes | .4
| 15 | 5.0
|
| Hydro | 0 |
Yes | 1.3
| | [4.2] |
|
T J W Hale
Chairman
4 June 2008
|
| 
