The Economics of Renewable Energy - Economic Affairs Committee Contents


Memorandum by Renewable Energy Systems UK and Ireland Ltd

  1.  Renewable Energy Systems (RES) is a leading renewable energy company with businesses in Europe, North America and Australia. Part of the British Sir Robert McAlpine Group of engineering and construction companies, RES has been at the forefront of wind energy development since the 1970s. We built our first wind farm in Cornwall in 1992 (the UK's second project) and since then have completed more than 2550MW of wind energy capacity worldwide, including projects in the UK (10% of the UK's installed wind capacity), Ireland, France, Scandinavia, Portugal and across the United States. The RES Group has more than 1500MW currently under construction and a large portfolio in development around the world. RES is active in a range of renewable energy technologies for on-site and building-integrated heat and power generation, including biomass heating, solar (PV and thermal) and ground source hot water, heating and cooling. Recently the Group launched a sustainable buildings consultancy, Inbuilt, which provides technical and consulting excellence in the research, design and delivery of sustainable built environments.

  2.  Energy policy—in particular its sustainability and economics—is a key issue at present, as we face the twin challenges of climate change and declining fuel resources, and a consequent rise in conventional energy prices. We need to see a paradigm shift in economic drivers. The huge consequences of major climate change and the extremely long term nature of the investment decisions required cannot be driven effectively by conventional commercial evaluation. Nevertheless, environmental challenge is economic opportunity and a shift to a sustainable energy policy will bring a range of economic, employment and social benefits at a local, regional and national level. With the price of oil at record levels and continuing to rise, the specific economics of renewable energy development can only become more favourable. Rising fossil fuel prices and improved technology mean that renewable energy generation is becoming increasingly competitive with conventional technologies, even without including the subsidies for, or the external costs of, conventional power generation.

How do and should renewables fit into Britain's overall energy policy? How does the UK's policy compare with the United States, Australia, Canada and other EU countries?

  3.  There are two significant issues driving the development of renewable energy—climate change and security of supply. In 2007, RES published two reports—Plugging the Gap: A survey of world fuel resources and their impact on the development of wind energy and Global warming: a guide to its origins and effects. Plugging the Gap showed that while global energy demand will grow by more than half over the next quarter of a century, we are now consuming more than three times as much oil as we discover, resulting in a peak in the next decade and a gap between supply and demand by 2030 equivalent to five times the current production of Saudi Arabia. We have just started to use more gas than we find—by 2030 production will have peaked and demand will have doubled, resulting in a gap equivalent to the current production of Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Coal is abundant and large energy consumers will be self-sufficient for some time, though by 2050 the world will have consumed 40% of its coal reserves, with a 10% decline each decade subsequently, and environmental concerns will continue to constrain its use. Current reserves of uranium will last 60 years with modest growth in nuclear generation but in the long-term alternatives would have to follow if there were substantial nuclear growth. Climate change is now recognised across the spectrum as a serious issue and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is a priority. Responding to these twin challenges means reducing consumption, reducing fossil fuel based generation and replacing it with sustainable low-carbon sources.

  4.  Renewable energy must be at the heart of the Government's energy policy. The potential for renewable energy in the UK is significant. Each technology has its own characteristics and timelines that need to be addressed in a national strategic plan. The 15% renewable energy target (the UK's share of the EU 20% target by 2020) translates to a 45% target for electricity -a massive challenge. The government's plan for 2020 must be part of a much longer term strategic plan for sustainability and must result in clear policies and instruments to ensure implementation of the actions required.

  5.  RES welcomes the Government's commitment to increase the development of renewable energy generation in the UK but firm action on a number of issues is required in order to reach existing targets and to go beyond to the level of emissions reduction scientists now say is necessary (ie 80% by 2050). The UK is not on track to meet its 2010 targets for renewable energy generation and the new EU Renewables Directive requires us to go even further. We believe that ambitious renewable energy targets are necessary and, with political will, achievable.

  6.  Onshore wind is the only technology with an industry ready and able to deliver the large-scale increase in generation needed to meet the 2010 target. It is expected to play a major role in plugging the short-term gap left by gas and in decarbonising the power sector over the next quarter of a century. Modem wind turbines are efficient, powerful machines that generate electricity from a resource that the UK has in abundance. Every year, projects developed and built by RES in the UK and Ireland are cutting CO2 emissions by more than 450,000 tonnes, generating electricity equivalent to the annual needs of around 160,000 households and, because wind is an indigenous energy resource, contributing to our national energy security. Wind power has the potential to bring significant economic and employment benefits for the country. RES employs more than 200 people in the UK and has a policy of using local firms for the civil engineering contracts during the construction phase of our wind farms.

  7.  Europe is a leader in wind energy technology and development. The 75GW of wind energy installed in Europe by 2010 is expected to meet one third of the EU's 2010 Kyoto target. In Europe, the leading wind energy nations are Germany, Spain and Denmark. In Spain, government targets have increased regularly in response to its success and currently, about 10% of national electricity is provided by wind, increasing to 15% by 2010 (26,000GWh produced in 2007, forecast to increase to around 29,000GWh in 2008). In Germany, a strong Renewable Energy Law has encouraged a flourishing wind energy industry, with more than 22,000MW installed capacity at the end of 2007. Germanys renewable energy target for 2010 under the EU renewables directive is 12.5% of electricity consumption but this was met and exceeded in 2007, with a share of 14%. The German government has recently increased its target for 2020 from 20% to 25-30%.

What are the barriers to greater deployment of renewable energy? Are there technical limits to the amount of renewable energy that the UK can support?

  8.  The renewable energy sector is hindered from reaching its full potential in the UK by number of continuing barriers. These are largely institutional rather than technological. The key issues that need to be addressed are: planning, grid, aviation, supply chain, skills shortage, and support and research for less mature technologies.

  9.  The planning system has not kept pace with the growth in interest in renewables. It is time-consuming and unpredictable, making it a lottery for developers large and small Decision time for planning consents is too long, both at local planning authority level and at appeal, across all four UK countries. According to the British Wind Energy Association, only 5% of wind farm applications are determined within the statutory 16 week period, compared to an average of 70% for all other major developments.

  10.  National policy on renewables is pretty robust and positive, but this is not translated at a local authority level, for a variety of reasons, including little understanding of or training in energy issues, misinformation and lack of resources. This leads to inconsistencies in approach. The government must be more diligent in monitoring and enforcing the delivery of national renewables policy on the ground.

  11.  The Keadby wind farm project, developed by RES, demonstrates how planning risk for developers is too high. The 34-turbine, 85MW project proposed on semi-industrial land near Keadby in North Lincolnshire, will generate power equivalent to the needs of approximately 38,000 homes every year. RES first starting surveying the site in 2001 and submitted a planning application in 2003. North Lincolnshire Council objected to the proposal which pushed the project to a public inquiry, which eventually took place in 2007 after significant delay. In February 2008 the Secretary of State granted consent for the project and construction has been planned to begin soon, with the project operational and contributing to national targets by 2010. This project could have been determined at the end of 2004 at the latest and the delay has cost RES well in excess of £1 million. More importantly, however, the delay was a missed opportunity to add to the UK's renewable energy generating capacity with a low impact, locally-supported project that can bring much-needed local economic benefits.

  12.  In fact a Judicial Review application has recently been made on the Keadby consent. This is likely to result in further delay as we would naturally be reluctant to place deposits for turbine orders in the region of £10,000,000 whilst a legal challenge hangs over the consent. We are seeing an increasing number of consented projects, especially in England, being delayed either by Section 288 Challenge or Judicial Review. We say delayed, rather than stopped, because in most cases it is clear that a delay is the likely outcome as the grounds are generally weak. We believe Judicial Review and Section 288 Challenge are being seen by national groups opposed to wind farms as legitimate tactics in their campaign to stop onshore wind farm development.

  13.  Another scheme, the 18MW Den Brook wind farm in Devon, was consented in February 2007, underwent a legal challenge, which was finally heard and dismissed in March 2008, but leave to appeal the High Court's decision has been granted and a date for that is currently set in December 2008.

  14.  RES generally supports the proposals in the Government's current Planning Bill to streamline the process by replacing the current system with granting consents for major infrastructure of national importance. However, this only applies to projects of over 50MW (for onshore wind) in England and Wales, so only 300MW out of the 8000MW of capacity currently in the planning system is affected and not until after 2010. The success of the Planning Bill's proposals are, in our view, utterly dependent on the development and interpretation of a robust set of national policy statements. We would like to see the Bill's scope increased to encompass onshore applications below 50MW and all offshore consents. It is also important that any replacement for Section 106 does not place undue burden on wind farm applications. We fundamentally object to any proposals to change the planning application fee structure. Uniquely, wind farm development boundaries are considerably bigger than the "footprint" of the project infrastructure. Adopting the preferred fee structure would result in unacceptably high application fees probably deterring development and thereby compromising on Government renewable energy targets.

  15.  The availability of grid capacity in the UK is a major obstacle to the achievement of renewable energy targets. We need a modern grid network that can support our ambitions into the future for low-carbon generation and that has the administrative processes, strategic planning and investment that is consistent with the Government's climate change policy.

  16.  At the moment, even consented projects that are ready to build and start contributing to the UK's renewable energy targets are not being connected to the grid. Renewables are not getting a fair deal in grid access. The Drummuir wind farm, a project developed by RES, is an example of this. Drummuir is a 42MW, 21 turbine, wind farm planned for Moray in Scotland. It was submitted in 2002 and after being turned down by the planning authority went through a lengthy and costly public inquiry, despite it being a well-designed, low-impact project in a good location. In 2006 the project received consent from the Scottish Executive. However, although we are ready to build this project, we are not able to go ahead because it is held up in the grid connection queue.

  17.  Planning delays in the UK have been further exacerbated by recent changes in the way the Ministry of Defence handles wind farm applications. They have recently started to issue last-minute objections to wind farm proposals which have previously had letters of "no objection", giving no time to respond and reducing market confidence as investments are lost. Again, the barrier here is institutional—there are technical solutions available to ensure that wind turbines do not interfere with radar. See also paragraph 23.

  18.  Over the last few years the cost of turbines has increased as a result of higher steel prices, pinch points in the turbine supply chain and soaring global demand for turbines, resulting in reduced market confidence. In the offshore wind sector, turbine supply is a key issue—manufacturers are looking to supply most of their capacity to the onshore market because offshore is still a higher financial risk.

  19.  The renewable energy industry faces an impending skills shortage. This is a critical issue considering the scale of development needed to meet the 2020 targets and beyond. There is a shortage of skilled and experienced workers in the manufacturing, construction and operating sectors, along with a shortage of graduates with the scientific, technical, commercial and social knowledge needed to take the industry to the next level. Initiatives must be put in place at company, sector, governmental and EU level to educate, train and attract skilled workers to the industry.

  20.  Support mechanisms and increased R&D for energy generating technologies that are currently less market mature but which will fill the gap in the medium to long term between supply and rising demand are needed. There is still a large heat demand that can be met in a sustainable way and we need to exploit the huge potential for building-integrated and on-site renewable energy generation.

  21.  We support the recommendations of the Renewable Energy Association on policy measures to overcome existing barriers to—and to implement new support mechanisms for—the development of a range of renewable heat and electricity generating technologies. These would include a production tariff to be applied to metered heat generated from on-site renewable energy installations and a Feed-in Tariff for microgeneration of electricity.

  22.  We would also like to see an improved long-term grant system for installing renewable energy technologies that is simple, well-publicised and well-resourced and recognition of the potential for biomass—especially in urban areas.

Are there likely to be technological advances that would make renewable energy cheaper and viable without Government support in the future? Should, and how could, policy be designed to promote such technological advances?

  23.  The roll out of well developed but not yet implemented or approved technological solutions to radar interference will free up many more potential wind farm sites and reduce the costs of failed applications. Objections to wind farm proposals on the grounds of aviation or radar issues currently affect ~4.5 GW of projects in planning.

Has Government support been effective in leading to more renewable energy? What have been the most cost-effective forams of support in the UK and other countries and what should the balance be between subsidies, guaranteed prices, quotas, carbon taxes and other forms of support? Should such support favour any particular form of renewable energy over the others? For instance, what are the relative merits of feed-in tariffs versus the UK's present Renewables Obligation Certificate (ROC) regime?

  24.  The Renewables Obligation has been relatively successful as a support mechanism to encourage renewable electricity, and wind energy in particular, into the market place. While the capacity of renewably-generated electricity so far installed under the RO is falling short of that needed to achieve the Government's 2010 target, it is important that the RO remains in place in order to maintain stability and investor confidence into the future, particularly with the 2020 targets being set at European level.

  25.  In our evidence to the Government's consultation on Reform of the Renewables Obligation in 2007 we agreed with the need for additional support for the more expensive renewable energy technologies but cautioned that increasingly fragile market confidence for onshore wind would be undermined by changes initially proposed to the RO and concluded that, should the Government be minded to adopt a banding approach, there should be no banding down of onshore wind but that additional funding should be provided. We welcomed the Government's conclusions published subsequently and agreed with the proposed banding levels, although cautioned that the levels may not be sufficiently high for some emerging technologies. We would like to see the RO's life extended beyond 2027.

  26.  With regard to the issue of the Renewables Obligation versus a Feed-in Tariff, we agree with the Government's conclusion that the RO should not be replaced by a Feed-in Tariff, although this may be appropriate for microgeneration as a way to encourage greater uptake by householders, the RO being too administratively expensive and complex for this sector. While renewable energy capacity is higher in a number of countries where the Feed-in Tariff system has been used, this is likely to also be a consequence of more favourable planning and grid connection regimes. It would not be beneficial to the UK renewables industry to change support mechanisms at this stage. A harmonisation of support mechanisms might be appropriate once Europe has moved towards a single electricity market.

  27.  A report by the European Wind Energy Association of the RE-EXpansion project comparing payment mechanisms in the EU[116] concluded that it was too early to draw final conclusions on the full range of policy options available. Policies based on fixed tariffs and premiums can be designed to work effectively but introducing them is not a guarantee of success—the design of the mechanism and its combination with other measures (grid access and development; administrative procedures; public acceptance and support) determine its success.

On top of the costs of building and running the different types of electricity generators, how much investment in Britain's transmission and distribution networks will different renewable energy sources require compared to other forms of generation? Are the current transmission and distribution systems capable of managing a large share of intermittent renewable electricity generation and, if not, how should they be changed? Are the rules about how we connect capacity to the grid supportive of renewables?

  28.  The existing electricity infrastructure is aging and suffers from 30 years of under-investment. Without network investment and access reform, renewable generation will remain inhibited. However, the opportunity for modernisation within a strategy for sustainability is huge.

  29.  It cannot be left to the market alone to deliver strategic infrastructure solutions as current private investment criteria are incompatible with the strategic timescales of relevance. Such commercial investment criteria would not have resulted in the London sewage and underground railway systems—strategic infrastructure often has very significant value beyond its initial commercial life. Generation and grid infrastructure is currently privately owned and investment is based on commercial return. In future, public-private partnerships will be essential for delivering the scale of new infrastructure required. This presents opportunity for both. Great care is also needed in the application of discounted cash flow analysis to very long term high impact issues like avoidance/mitigation of climate change. Policies need strategic timeframes well beyond 2020 and need mechanisms to enable creation of a flexible and enduring infrastructure.

  30.  Investment and operation of the grid is regulated by Ofgem, with short-term cost-to-the-consumer as their key metric. This inhibits radical development to access main centres of renewable resource. Extension of the grid will result in additional cost to the consumer, hence the reluctance of Ofgem to commit to the vision, but grid forms only a small percentage of total electricity cost so should not be a major constraint on ambition. Ofgem's remit must be rethought specifically to prioritise sustainability and also to enable large-scale and very long term strategic investment.

  31.  The rules about how we connect capacity to the grid are not supportive but inhibitive of renewables. There is no priority grid access or dispatch for renewables; development of the grid is reactive to emerging projects whilst reform of the operating regime is inhibited by process rigidity. This cannot be addressed through evolution of existing codes; radical redesign is needed. Giving priority access for connection and production to renewable energy capacity means not doing so for centralised fossil plant. It is essential to overcome resistance from the affected incumbents. Renewables must have priority grid access and dispatch. Shared access rights and flexible security-of-supply rules need to be introduced.

  32.  Consenting of electricity infrastructure projects is slow and difficult. The process in England and Scotland is being radically reformed; a specific aim is better and speedier decisions on such projects, which is to be welcomed. Consenting must be strategy-led and development control must enable rather than impede.

  33.  Work on developing a long-term infrastructure plan needs to start now. Government must enable the creation of that plan and provide the necessary instruments to ensure it becomes reality. Government must undertake a major education programme to address the need to change attitudes and create public and stakeholder buy-in.

  34.  Today's grid reflects historical not future need. Renewables must be harnessed where they occur, not where the grid is now. The grid must be strengthened and extended and rather than do this piecemeal, strategic planning should identify and enable long-term, ambitious solutions that have relevance well beyond the short-term 2020 horizon.

How do the external costs of renewable generation of electricity—such as concerns in many affected rural areas that wind farms and extra pylons spoil areas of natural beauty—compare with those of fossil fuels and nuclear power? How should these be measured and compared? Is the planning system striking the right balance between all the different considerations?

  35.  For our views on the planning system's effectiveness in balancing the positives and negatives when assessing renewable energy proposals, specifically onshore wind farms, see paragraphs 9-14 above.

  36.  In general, the external costs of renewable energy generation are less than the external costs of fossil fuels and nuclear power. They can be mitigated by sensitive design and development and local consultation and the E IA process already in place facilitates this. While there are concerns about the visual impact of wind turbines, our experience is that the greatest supporters of wind energy are those communities living near an existing project. Public opinion is favourable towards wind energy in general. The Eurobarometer opinion survey in January 2007 showed that 71% of EU citizens were "very positive" towards the use of wind energy in their country. The popularity of a range of energy sources was surveyed and they were (in order of popularity with greatest first): solar energy, wind energy, hydroelectric, marine, biomass, gas, oil, coal and nuclear.

  37.  The issue of external costs of different types of electricity generation is an important one. The European Commission-funded ExternE study (1998) estimated that the cost of producing electricity from coal or oil would double and the costs of electricity production from gas would increase by 30% if external costs (in the form of damage to the environment and health) were taken into account. It estimated that these costs amount to 1-2% of EU GDP or between Euros85billion and Euros170billion, not including the cost of climate change. The ExternE study gave the external costs of various energy sources expressed as Eurocent/kWh. According to the RE-Xpansion analysis, wind power is expected to avoid external costs of Euros25billion/year by 2020.

How do the costs of generating electricity from renewables compare to fossil fuel and nuclear generation? What are the current estimates for the costs of "greener" fossil fuel generation with carbon capture and storage and how do these costs compare to renewable generation? What impact do these various forms of electricity generation have on carbon emissions?

  38. Regarding "greener" fossil fuel generation, in our 2007 survey of world fuel resources (Plugging the Gap), RES considered the availability of coal over the next few decades and the role for "clean coal"—a series of new technologies that aim at reducing the specific emissions of coal-fired power plants and ultimately eliminating them. The first step in this strategy is reducing emissions by improving thermal efficiency through supercritical stream cycles and IGCC. IGCC also paves the way for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), for which there are several technological options.

  39.  CCS is currently at an R&D stage and uncertainties persist as to the potential chemical and physical interactions of CO2 with the storage medium. No mature technology exists for CCS today, but coal-rich countries like the US are investing heavily to develop it and aim at having a demonstration project in the coming years.

  40.  According to a DTI (UK) study[117], CCS costs for a new IGCC plant are estimated at 97 €/tonne of abated CO2, including the cost of the energy used in the process. In terms of electricity cost, a carbon-free kWh generated in such plant would cost 3.9c€ more than one produced by a modem CCGT. Clearly, CCS will not develop without incentives but a support scheme will not be easily established, as nuclear generators could probably claim for similar premiums. However, costs are expected to be reduced as capture technology improves. Financial returns from enhanced oil recovery (EOR) could further ease the burden.

If the UK is to meet the EU target that by 2020 15% of energy consumed will come from renewables, will most of this come from greater use of renewable sources in electricity generation? If so, why? Should British support for renewables in other countries be allowed to contribute towards meeting the target for the UK?

  41.  In the short-term, onshore and offshore wind will provide the majority of renewable energy generation in the UK, as wind power is the most advanced and economic of the technologies. However, with the right investment triggered by effective support mechanisms as part of a long-term strategic plan, other renewable energy technologies—specifically those to meet the large demand for heat and on-site/buildings-integrated generation—will play a major in meeting the targets that must follow the 2020 target. Marine renewables have huge potential around our coastline and continued support for tidal stream and wave energy technology development is important.

How would changes in the cost of carbon—under the European emissions trading scheme—affect the relative costs of renewables and other sources of energy? Would a more effective carbon emissions trading scheme remove the need for special support of renewable energy?

  42.  A higher price for carbon would be beneficial for renewables. The ETS should be designed to ensure a stable and appropriate regulatory framework which gives investors the confidence they require for long term development plants; create a level playing field for renewables in comparison with other—often more polluting—energy technologies ie internalisation of external costs; take into account all benefits associated with renewables; allow the renewables sector to receive sufficient compensation in recognition of those benefits. However, CO2 trading—a single payment mechanism based on CO2 price—cannot be relied upon to bring forward renewable energy because the price is too volatile to promote investment.

16 June 2008





116   Support Schemes for Renewable Energy: A Comparative Analysis of Payment Mechanisms in the EU, EWEA, May 2005. Back

117   UK Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), "Review of the Feasibility of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in the UK", September 2003 Back


 
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