House of Lords - Economic Affairs

Select Committee on Economic Affairs Minutes of Evidence

Supplementary letter from the Office for National Statistics

I gave evidence with Government Statistical Service colleagues to the Economic Affairs Committee investigation into the Impact of Immigration. There were two follow-up requests from the session and subsequently a further request for clarification of the status of the different estimates of migrant workers recently appearing in the press. A response to the two questions raised at the session is attached separately.

The data for analysing migrant workers comes from the Labour Force Survey. The data has been used to answer many questions, and the different estimates in circulation reflect the often subtle differences in the questions being asked. The key distinctions to be made are those between foreign-born and foreign nationality, and working age adults versus all those aged 16-plus. When applied to individuals in employment, these classifications lead to legitimate, but different, estimates from the same data of the number of "migrant workers".

The statistical submission to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs in October included estimates of the number of migrant workers employed in the UK based on the number of people at a given time who were born abroad, are of working age (16-64 for men, 16-59 for women), and in employment, and thus included, for example, some people who are UK nationals. This submission remains accurate and is not affected by the revision to the estimate of the number of foreign nationals employed in the UK announced by DWP on 29 October.

In response to evidence given to the committee by the National Statistician on 16 October, additional information was requested on two topics.

1. The Committee asked for more information regarding people not realising their intentions on arrival in the UK with regards to their length of stay

Since 1991, ONS has made allowances in the international migration estimates for people who did not realise their intended length of stay when they first arrived in (or left) the UK.

— Visitor Switchers are defined as people who originally planned to stay in their destination country for less than 12 months, but subsequently stayed longer than 12 months.

— Migrant Switchers are defined as people who originally planned to stay in their destination country for longer than 12 months, but subsequently stayed for less than 12 months.

In 2004, ONS introduced new questions on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) asking departing overseas citizens (and arriving UK citizens) how long they had intended to be in the UK (or abroad) at the time they arrived (or departed). The data gathered from these questions have provided an empirical base on which to set the levels of adjustment in ONS's improved migration methodology to allow for Visitor Switchers and Migrant Switchers.

The adjustments[17] made, for the mid 2006 population estimates, to account for Visitor Switchers were as follows:

— 27% of arriving EEA citizen visitors stayed longer than a year (resulting in an estimated 35,000 switchers in the year to mid 2006);

— 16% of arriving non-EEA citizen visitors stayed longer than a year (resulting in an estimated 13,000 switchers in the year to mid 2006);

— 31% of departing EEA citizen visitors going to an EU country stayed longer than a year (resulting in an estimated 8,000 switchers in the year to mid 2006); and

— 11% of all other departing visitors stayed longer than a year (resulting in an estimated 7,000 switchers in the year to mid 2006).

The adjustments made to allow for Migrant Switchers were:

— 3% of arriving "migrants" left within a year (resulting in an estimated 18,000 switchers in the year to mid 2006);

— 4% of departing "migrants" returned within a year (resulting in an estimated 17,000 switchers in the year to mid 2006).

2. The Committee noted that estimates of international out-migration had risen by almost 50 per cent over the last ten years. They requested further information on some of the characteristics of out-migrants in order to understand if these differed significantly from those of in migrants, in particular, if those leaving were mainly British or UK born

Table 1 shows estimates of international out migration in the years 1996-2005 for British and non-British citizens. In most years slightly over half of all out-migrants were British citizens (an average of 53%).

Table 1

OUT-MIGRATION BY YEAR AND CITIZENSHIP, TOTAL INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION1 UNITED KINGDOM, 1996-2005


	Number (thousands)			Per cent
Year	Total	British	Non-British	British	Non-British

1996	264	156	108	59	41
1997	279	149	131	53	47
1998	251	126	126	50	50
1999	291	139	152	48	52
2000	321	161	160	50	50
2001	308	159	149	52	48
2002	359	186	174	52	48
2003	362	191	171	53	47
2004	359	208	152	58	42
2005	380	198	181	52	48

Notes:
1 The principal data source for estimates of Total International Migration is the International Passenger Survey (IPS). It is supplemented with data from the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) on flows to and from the Irish Republic. Other data sources allow for the estimation of adjustments for: asylum seekers not captured by the IPS (using data from the Home Office), and for "switchers" (people who change their intentions and their migratory status).
Source: Office for National Statistics

Table 2 provides a similar analysis based on whether out migrants were born in the UK or abroad. These figures show that, over the period, similar proportions were born in the UK and abroad, with some variability from year to year. Neither table provides any evidence of any long-term trend.

Table 2

OUT-MIGRATION BY YEAR AND COUNTRY OF BIRTH, TOTAL INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION1 UNITED KINGDOM, 1996-2005


	Number (thousands)			Per cent
Year	Total	UK	Non-UK	UK	Non-UK

1996	264	144	120	55	45
1997	279	144	135	52	48
1998	251	125	126	50	50
1999	291	136	155	47	53
2000	321	155	166	48	52
2001	308	155	153	50	50
2002	359	171	188	48	52
2003	362	183	179	51	49
2004	359	200	159	56	44
2005	380	187	193	49	51

Notes:
1 The principal data source for estimates of Total International Migration is the International Passenger Survey (IPS). It is supplemented with data from the Irish Central Statistics Office (CSO) on flows to and from the Irish Republic. Other data sources allow for the estimation of adjustments for: asylum seekers not captured by the IPS (using data from the Home Office); and for "switchers" (people who change their intentions and their migratory status).
Source: Office for National Statistics

Table 3 shows the age distributions of British and non-British out-migrants between 2001 and 2005.

— For both groups, the majority were aged between 15 and 44.

— However, the proportion in this age group was markedly higher for the non-British (88%) than for the British (65%).

— Although British out-migrants were more likely to be of retirement age than non-British, the proportion in this age group was relatively small in both cases (five and one per cent respectively).

Table 3

OUT-MIGRATION BY CITIZENSHIP AND AGE, INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER SURVEY1, 2 UNITED KINGDOM, 2001-5


Per cent
	Age
	All ages	Under 15	15-24	25-44	45-59/643	over4

All citizenships	100	8	23	52	13	4
British	100	10	17	48	20	5
Non-British	100	5	30	58	5	1

Notes:
1 Figures are based on International Passenger Survey (IPS) data only and do not include data covering flows to the Irish Republic or adjustments for asylum seekers, visitor switchers or migrant switchers.
2 These data have been revised in line with recent changes to the weightings used to gross up the IPS data. Therefore they may not agree with previous estimates that have been published.
3 "45-59/64" includes females aged 45-59 years and males ages 45-64 years to reflect the differing retirement ages between the sexes.
4 "60-65 and over" includes females aged 60 years and over and males aged 65 years and over to reflect the differing retirement ages between the sexes.
Source: Office for National Statistics

Figures 1a and 1b provide a comparison of the age distributions of British and non-British out-migrants over the period 1991 to 2005. This shows that:

— The age distribution of British out-migrants was relatively stable over this period. The main change has been an increase in the proportion of out-migrants aged between 45 and retirement age, with a small decrease in the proportion aged 15-24.

— For the non-British, there was a steady reduction in the proportion aged under-15 with commensurate increases in other age groups. In particular, those aged 25 to 44 have consistently comprised the majority of non-British out-migrants since 1999.

Figure 1a

AGE DISTRIBUTION OF BRITISH OUT-MIGRANTS BY YEAR, INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER SURVEY UNITED KINGDOM, 1991-2005

Figure 1b

AGE DISTRIBUTION OF NON-BRITISH OUT-MIGRANTS, INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER SURVEY UNITED KINGDOM, 1991-2005

The destinations of British and non-British out migrants in the period 2001-05 are shown in Table 4.

— Nearly three quarters of British migrants went to either the EU (39%) or Old Commonwealth (33%).

— Slightly over half of non British migrants went to these destinations (28 and 27%, respectively). They were more likely to go to all other destinations than British migrants. This principally reflects non British migrants returning to their home country or region of the world. Details can be found in the International Migration statistics series MN, at:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.asp?vlnk=507

Table 4

OUT-MIGRATION BY CITIZENSHIP AND PLACE OF NEXT RESIDENCE, INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER SURVEY1,2

UNITED KINGDOM, 2001-05


							Per cent
	Place of next residence
	All countries	EU3,4	Other Europe3,4	All C'wealth3,4	Old C'wealth	New C'wealth3,4	Rest of the World

All citizenships	100	34	5	38	30	8	23
British	100	39	3	38	33	5	20
Non-British	100	28	7	38	27	10	27

Notes:
1 Figures are based on International Passenger Survey (IPS) data only and do not include data covering flows to the Irish Republic or adjustments for asylum seekers, visitor switchers or migrant switchers.
2 These data have been revised in line with recent changes to the weightings used to gross up the IPS data. Therefore they may not agree with previous estimates that have been published.
3 Up to and including 2003: estimates for the EU include the EU15 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, the Irish Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden); Other Europe includes all other European countries except Cyprus and Malta; and Commonwealth and New Commonwealth include Cyprus and Malta.
4 From 2004 onwards: estimates for the EU include the EU25 (EU15 plus Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia); Other Europe includes all other European countries; and Commonwealth and New Commonwealth exclude Cyprus and Malta.
Source: Office for National Statistics

Figures 2a and 2b show that, for both British and non-British migrants, the proportions going to the EU and Old Commonwealth have increased slightly in recent years.

Figure 2a

DISTRIBUTION OF PLACE OF NEXT RESIDENCE OF BRITISH OUT-MIGRANTS BY YEAR, INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER SURVEY

UNITED KINGDOM, 1991-2005