APPENDIX 5: THE UK'S POSITION UNDER THE
NEW QMV RULES
These calculations show how the UK's share of the
overall voting weight and the UK's share of a blocking minority
will change under the Lisbon Treaty's new QMV rules, and what
the UK's influence on the use of the Ioannina-II mechanism will
be.
The calculations below are based on Eurostat data
as of 1 January 2006.
The table below shows the situation that the UK is
currently in if it wishes a measure initiated by the Commission
to be approved under QMV[270]:
| For a measure initiated by the Commission to pass, the proposal needs:
| The UK: | So the UK has, out of what it needs to gather to get the measure passed:
|
| A majority of Council members (i.e. 14 Member States),
| Represents one Council member (3.7%) | 7.1% of the Council members it needs
|
| 255 out of 345 votes, and | Has 29 votes (8.4%)
| 11.4% of the votes it needs |
| 62% of the Union's population | Represents 12.3% of the Union's population
| 19.8% of the population it needs |
The table below shows the situation that the UK will be in under
the Lisbon Treaty's QMV rules, if it wishes a measure initiated
by the Commission to be approved under QMV:
| For a measure initiated by the Commission to pass, the proposal will need:
| The UK: | So the UK will have, out of what it will need to gather to get the measure passed:
|
| 55% of Council members (i.e. 15 Member States), and
| Represents one Council member (3.7%) | 6.7% of the Council members it will need
|
| 65% of the Union's population | Represents 12.3% of the Union's population
| 18.9% of the population it will need |
Each Member State has equal weighting in terms of the number of
Council members (one in 27) and the change (from 7.1 per cent
to 6.7 per cent) will be exactly the same for all Member States.
Once this is discounted, the most important term under the current
voting rules is the share of the votes that each Member State
holds—in the UK's case, 8.4 per cent—as the population
term is rarely, if ever, invoked. Under the Lisbon Treaty, the
important term will be the share of the population that each Member
State represents—in the UK's case, 12.3 per cent. Some therefore
hold that the UK's voting power will increase from 8.4 per cent
to 12.3 per cent.
The other side of the coin is how the Lisbon Treaty affects the
ease with which the UK can gather a blocking minority to stop
a measure that it considers to be against its interests.
The table below shows the situation that the UK is currently in
if it wishes a measure initiated by the Commission to be blocked
under QMV[271].
| Minimum needed to block a measure initiated by the Commission:
| The UK: | So the UK has, out of what it needs to gather to block a measure:
|
| 14 Council members, or | Represents one Council member (3.7%)
| 7.1% of the Council members it will need |
| 91 out of 345 votes, or | Has 29 votes (8.4%)
| 31.9% of the votes it needs |
| More than 38% of the Union's population |
Represents 12.3% of the Union's population |
32.3% of the population it needs |
The table below shows the situation that the UK will be in under
the Lisbon Treaty's QMV rules, if it wishes a measure initiated
by the Commission to be blocked under QMV. The UK would have to
gather the minimum number of Member States representing more than
35 per cent of the Union's population, plus one Member State.
| Minimum that will be needed to block a measure initiated by the Commission:
| The UK: | So the UK will have, out of what it will need to gather to block a measure:
|
| 13 Council members, or | Represents one Council member (3.7%)
| 7.7% of the Council members it will need |
| 35.1% of the Union's population[272]
| Represents 12.3% of the Union's population
| 35.0% of the population it will need |
The UK's share of the minimum blocking minority (i.e. the blocking
minority including the smallest number of Member States required
to back up the UK) will therefore increase from 31.9 per cent
(in terms of weighted votes) or 32.3 per cent (in terms of population)
under the current Treaties to 35 per cent (in terms of population)
under the Lisbon Treaty.
It is also important to consider how easily the UK will be able
to gather together enough Member States to implement the "Ioannina-II"
mechanism, if the UK wishes to suspend a decision for long enough
to find an acceptable solution. There is no similar provision
in the current Treaties.
The table below shows the situation that the UK will be in between
1 November 2014 and 31 March 2017 if it wishes the "Ioannina-II"
mechanism to be used:
| Minimum that will be needed to implement the "Ioannina-II" mechanism:
| The UK: | So the UK will have, out of what it will need to gather to use the mechanism:
|
| 75% of the 13 Council members (10 members), or
| Represents one Council member (3.7%) | 10% of the Council members it will need
|
| 75% of the 35% of the Union population necessary to form a blocking minority (i.e. 26.3% of the Union's population)
| Represents 12.3% of the Union's population
| 46.9% of the population it will need |
The table below shows the situation that the UK will be in between
after 1 April 2017 if it wishes the Ioannina-II mechanism to be
used:
| Minimum that will be needed to implement the "Ioannina-II" mechanism:
| The UK: | So the UK will have, out of what it will need to gather to use the mechanism:
|
| 55% of the 13 Council members (8 members), or
| Represents one Council member (3.7%) | 12.5% of the Council members it will need
|
| 55% of the 35% of the Union population necessary to form a blocking minority (i.e. 19.3% of the Union's population)
| Represents 12.3% of the Union's population
| 63.9% of the population it will need |
Between 1 November 2014 and 31 March 2017, the UK will be able
to invoke the "Ioannina-II" mechanism if it has the
agreement of Germany alone, or of other states adding up to 14.0
per cent of the Union's population. After 1 April 2017, the UK
will be able to implement the "Ioannina-II" mechanism
if it has the agreement of any of Germany, France, Italy, Spain,
or Poland alone, or of several other smaller states adding up
to 7.0 per cent of the Union's population.
270
For simplicity's sake, these calculations are based on a vote
on a measure initiated by the Commission in which all Member States
are taking part. Back
271
For simplicity's sake, these calculations are based on a vote
on a measure initiated by the Commission in which all Member States
are taking part. Back
272
As the extra Member State could be any Member State, including
Malta, Luxembourg, or Cyprus representing (according to Eurostat)
just 0.1 per cent of the Union's population, the UK will have
to gather a minimum of 35.1 per cent of the Union's population,
as long as this includes at least four states. Back
|
