Select Committee on European Union Fourteenth Report


CHAPTER 5: ENERGY

The Issues

128.  One of the major issues linking the EU and Russia closely is that of energy, especially gas.[63] Russia is a major producer of oil and gas and supplies a number of EU countries, while the Russian energy industry has benefited from the investment and expertise of European companies. As part of the institutional framework for EU-Russia relations, the EU has instituted an Energy Dialogue with Russia.[64]

129.  The two commodities have to be considered separately, not least because of the differences in transportation. Crude oil reaches Europe from many sources, and by many routes: road, rail, sea, pipeline, or a combination of these. If one source of supply falls short, it can usually be made up from another. However gas reaches Europe primarily through fixed pipelines which represent a major investment and for which there are, in the short and even medium term, few alternatives. In a crisis, it is therefore hard for the consumer to diversify by finding new suppliers. It is of course equally hard for the producer to diversify by finding new consumers. This means that the question of pipeline routes is always highly political. It also means that there is a measure of mutual dependence between producer and consumer: both are locked into the pipeline system at any one time. This will hardly change until the proportion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transported by sea increases. Currently LNG supply is limited and initial costs are high, but 20% of the UK's imports of gas will be LNG in the next year with major new terminals at Milford Haven and one already in the Thames Estuary. While LNG is likely to continue to constitute a minority of the UK's supplies, it will nonetheless be an important source of the UK's gas imports.

BOX 8
Russia: A major Producer and Exporter of Energy Commodities

Russia is the world's largest producer and exporter of natural gas, the second largest oil exporter and the third largest energy consumer. In 2005, according to the estimates of the World Bank, the oil and gas sector represented around 20% of Russia's GDP, generated more than 60% of its export revenues (64% in 2007), and accounted for 30% of all foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country.

Russia has the world's largest known natural gas reserves. The other known major gas reserves are all in the Middle East: Iran (15%); Qatar (14%); Saudi Arabia (4%); UAE (3%). By contrast the EU has little more than 1%.

Russia has the eighth largest known oil reserves. The largest known reserves of oil are in Saudi Arabia, followed by Iran and UAE. Russia and Venezuela each have 6.6%.

Russia has the world's second largest known coal reserves.[65]

Oil production in the Soviet Union peaked in 1988 at 12.5 million barrels a day. This figure was halved after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It began to rise again in 1999, following the privatisation of much of the industry, the massive devaluation of the rouble, and the rise in the oil price. Production from older fields will decline over the next decade, but the decline should be offset as new fields come into production and will be producing more than half of the country's oil by 2020.


130.  Security of supply is a key issue for the EU, especially in the wake of disruptions in gas supplies from Russia on several occasions in the last two years. Dieter Helm, Professor of Energy Policy at the University of Oxford, told us that there had been some oil issues and the Russians had slowed the oil supply to Germany, causing some disruption, but basically "the exposure to Russian oil is somewhat limited—the big game is about gas" (Q 369).

131.  A second key issue is the ownership and control of the means of production and transport. The European Commission's proposals for liberalisation of the EU energy market (see paragraph 150 onwards) a key component of which is the "unbundling", or separation, of production and distribution assets, have provoked opposition from Russia because they conflict with Gazprom's strategy (See Box 10 below) of controlling downstream assets in the EU. In this respect, the EU is keen to agree the principles of the Energy Charter Treaty and its Transit Protocol with Russia, possibly as part of a new PCA (see chapter 3). As the Commissioner for External Relations recently said: "there is great interest on both sides in negotiating arrangements that allow for an expansion of a Russian and EU presence in each other's markets. This should be done inside the New [Partnership and Cooperation] Agreement, of which energy will be an important part".[66]

BOX 9
Development of EU Energy Policy

The European Commission began a debate on the future of European energy policy with the publication of its Green paper in March 2006.[67] The paper was produced at the behest of EU leaders at the Hampton Court summit during the UK presidency in autumn 2005. This paved the way for the Energy Package presented by the European Commission on 10 January 2007.[68] An EU summit on 9 March 2007 endorsed the package, agreeing a two year action plan to launch a common energy policy.[69] Meeting in March 2008, Member States agreed to adopt the package by the end of 2008. These augment parallel Commission plans to further liberalise European energy markets.[70]

A second strategic European Energy review is scheduled for November 2008 with its recommendations to be endorsed in March 2009. A second action plan for 2010 and onwards is scheduled for endorsement in March 2010. These measures are aimed at continuing the progress towards the development of a single European energy policy.

The French Government have announced that energy security will be one of the priorities of their presidency in the second half of 2008.


The EU's dependence on Russian energy

132.  Overall Europe's dependence on energy supplies from Russia is substantial. The British Government believes that, once the EU creates a single market for gas, the figure for the dependence on Russian gas of EU countries as a whole would be 25% (Q 401), though the dependence of individual Member States on Russian gas varies considerably and for some the dependence is total. British dependence is very small or nil.[71]

The table below sets out the figures for 2005.[72]

TABLE 1
EU Member States Gas Imports from Russia

Member State
Percentage of Total Gas Imports that come from Russia
Austria
70
Belgium
8
Bulgaria
100
Czech Republic
76
Estonia
100
Finland
100
France
23
Germany
57
Greece
84
Hungary
81
Italy
36
Latvia
100
Lithuania
100
Poland
68
Romania
100
Slovakia
100
Slovenia
60
Other EU Member States
(Cyprus, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, 
Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, 
Sweden, UK)
0
EU 27 overall average
42

Russian Oil and Gas Production

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

133.  Many economists inside and outside the Russian Federation point out that domestic as well as international demand for Russian oil and gas is growing. Formidable new consumers are now competing for energy, notably China and India, and there are questions about whether Russia can meet the demand. The Europe Minister, Jim Murphy, told us that the British government believes that "within five years with the level of current investment Russia will not be able to meet her domestic demand and international obligations" (Q 401). Professor Helm told us that reserves and resources were vast and that further in the future the Arctic reserves were likely to be very great and increasingly accessible by sea. Very important uncertainties existed about the pipelines to markets and the LNG (liquefied natural gas) facilities, the investment process and the price of oil and gas (Q 360).

134.  Sir Andrew Wood (former British Ambassador to Russia) agreed about potential shortages: "Domestic energy demand is increasing at present at around 5% each year. Available data show that Russian oil and gas production has not and will not keep pace with that demand, as well as meeting increasing commitments to Western customers. Investment in new fields has lagged, and cannot now be brought into effective production in good time. Difficult and very expensive decisions will be needed to ensure that the resulting strains are not prolonged, and that competing priorities are satisfied; Russia already depends on Central Asian gas, and will do so increasingly. Despite strong pressures on these countries that may not be easy to secure, … non-Gazprom Russian gas will be needed too and [this] will be easier said than done. It would call for bankable understandings between the independents and Gazprom which would conflict with that company's monopolistic practices (or an inefficient extension of Gazprom's reach). Using independents' gas would also call for heavy investment in processing; and in pipelines. Existing ones badly need attention, including the network linking Russia and Central Asia. Construction capacity constraints are likely to prove as real as financial limits" (p 191).

135.  We were told in Moscow that TNK-BP were investing heavily in new "greenfield" projects and expected to see overall production increase again in 2009. However, these were very complex, remote and expensive oil fields to bring on line. They were ice covered for six months and in swampy areas for the remainder of the year. Even more difficult conditions would have to be overcome if much of the gas reserves were to be brought on stream.[73]

OWNERSHIP AND CONTROL

136.  One path which the Russian Government could take to reach its targets would be to allow foreign companies to bring in their capital and know-how. However, Professor Helm thought it was naïve to think that the Russians would beg the Western oil companies to come and help them out (Q 361). In the last few years the Russian Government has moved in the opposite direction, itself taking control of the means of production and transport. Many of the privatised companies have been taken over or forced to allow the state a controlling share. To some extent this has simply redefined the problem. The energy sector remains as political as ever, a golden source of patronage and riches for contending factions in the Russian administration, and a driving factor of politics in the second Putin term. The political elite, the governmental institutions and the large monopoly corporations in Russia have become intimately entwined.

137.  Many economists inside Russia believe that the effective re-nationalisation of the country's strategic energy resources is a serious weakness and a brake on future economic development. Others, most Russian politicians, and the public at large believe that natural resources constitute the country's "crown jewels", and that it is natural that they should remain under state control. Most ordinary Russians are happy to see the oligarchs brought to heel. Professor Helm thought that state-owned Gazprom (see Box 10 below) was close to pursuing the right rational strategy: to monopolise the domestic resources, owning the reserves and pipes; controlling as much of the downstream market as it can (buying pipes and other assets in Europe); pursuing a policy of divide and rule to get bilateral contracts with particular countries, especially Germany; and entering into politics with all the other sources of supply (Q 368). Gazprom had pursued a policy which was now common to virtually all resource rich countries around the world that "the state either directly or indirectly through the likes of Gazprom should own the oil and gas" (Q 361). From a Russian point of view, he thought, this was a rational thing to do.

BOX 10
Gazprom

90% of Russia's gas produced by the State owned Gazprom, which also operates the network of gas pipelines. Gazprom is also Russia's largest earner of hard currency, and it accounts for around 25% of the government's tax revenues. Its operations have been encumbered by ageing fields, by insufficient export pipelines, and by the requirement to supply heat and power to the domestic market at government-regulated prices, regardless of profitability. Nevertheless, production has started at two new fields: Zapolyarnoye in 2001, one of the largest gas fields brought on stream in the world; and South Russkoye in 2007, also a major field. Gazprom itself foresees that its production will increase by 1-2% a year by 2008, but most of Russia's new natural gas production over the next two decades is expected to come from independent gas companies.[74] However, even these developments may prove insufficient to meet domestic and foreign demand for Russian gas.


138.  The Russian government considers that contracts negotiated some years ago with Western oil companies at a time of Russian weakness gave foreign companies excessive control over individual oil and gas fields and it has moved to renegotiate them. Referring in general to Russian foreign policy and specifically to Central Asia, Professor Hanson spoke of Russian feelings of paranoia, of having been "messed around" in the 1990s when they were weak—and now they were strong (Q 73). The oil companies are now bearing the consequences and feel that contracts are being renegotiated under something close to duress: BP had to give up its original arrangements to exploit the massive Kovykta gas field in Siberia, and Shell was forced to give up majority control of the Sakhalin-2 project

139.  This has been an unpleasant process, which has done nothing for the reputation of the Russian government abroad. It has been compounded by Russian methods: in March 2008 the Russian authorities searched the Moscow offices of TNK-BP and BP and seized files and computer servers. The company employees (none of them UK citizens) were questioned. At first sight these sorts of actions ought to discourage the foreign investment the Russian energy sector urgently needs, but this picture is over-simple. The foreign energy companies have reluctantly accepted the reduced role imposed on them: they cannot afford to be absent from the Russian market. One Western oil man recently commented to Yegor Gaidar (Russian Institute for the Study of the Economy in Transition) that the Russians were doing everything to push the oil companies out, but they were not doing enough.[75]

140.  There is also some evidence of caution on the Russian side. The Russians may be determined to retain ultimate control, but they are also showing signs of some flexibility. In 2006 Gazprom broke off negotiations which would have given a consortium of foreign companies 49% of the shares in the Shtokman gas field in the Barents Sea, 550 kilometres north east of Murmansk, the largest discovered but undeveloped gas field in the world. Less than a year later, Gazprom announced that the French company Total would be allowed a 25% share in an operating company together with a stake held by Hydro Statoil of Norway. Other foreign companies might also be allowed a substantial stake, although Gazprom would retain overall control.

141.  There are serious concerns about whether Russia can supply sufficient gas and oil to meet its current and foreseeable domestic demand and international commitments. In the face of this probable shortfall Russia will need greater efficiency and foreign capital. It is unlikely however that these needs will force the Russians to change their ways and there is little chance at present that foreign companies will be allowed by the Russians to acquire ownership of Russia's strategic oil and gas resources. However, this has not deterred, and should not deter, European companies from seeking opportunities to invest in the country.

Energy Politics

142.  Many Europeans fear that the European Union's dependence on Russian supplies will leave it open to political and economic blackmail, although Sir Mark Lyall Grant, Political Director, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) told us that the relationship is one of mutual interdependence and that Russia has concerns about security of demand (Q 36). Desirable though it might be that the production and supply of energy, and the sitting and building of oil and gas pipelines, should be determined purely by market considerations, they rarely are. There is no pipeline bringing Central Asian gas to market through the convenient route across Iran because of American political opposition. The pipeline from Baku to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean was deliberately designed to bypass an existing route through Russia for reasons of security rather than economics.

143.  Two recent incidents have reinforced European fears of Russian energy blackmail. Western European consumers were affected when the Russians temporarily cut off gas to Ukraine in January 2006. Pricing was the official Russian explanation, but political motives were suspected connected to Russia's objection to the "Orange Revolution." A "technical" breakdown has deprived a refinery in Lithuania of its supplies of Russian crude for four years. The Russians' explanation was that the pipeline was cracked and leaking; the suspicion is that this too was retaliation because the Lithuanians sold the refinery to a Polish company, rather than to a rival Russian company. Problems with energy supply were one of the reasons for the delay in re-starting negotiations with the Russians on the PCA.

144.  Whatever the political motivations, there is no doubt that Russian energy companies backed, and in the case of Gazprom and the larger oil companies owned by the Russian government, are making an ambitious bid to become major players on the world scene. A Gazprom spokesman recently said: "We made a decision to go global in terms of acquiring assets and developing strategy outside Russia."[76] At the beginning of January 2008 Gazprom announced a deal to invest up to $2 billion to explore and develop the gas fields of Nigeria, a deal which raises further concerns for the Europeans, for whom Nigerian supplies are one obvious alternative to Russian gas. In February 2008 Gazprom also signed a Protocol with Bolivia on prospecting and exploration of natural gas in Bolivia. During President Putin's visit to Libya in April 2008, Gazprom signed a memorandum of cooperation with Libya's National Oil company for a joint venture in the gas and oil sector. Gazprom has developed special relationships with large European companies, set up its own supply businesses in Europe, and bought into gas networks there (we touch on the political implications of Gazprom's recent deal in Serbia in Chapter 6 below).

145.  Professor Helm commented to us that Russia was working very hard at constructing its foreign relationships (Q 373). Russian diplomacy had been very heavily focused in the Caspian States [Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as suppliers] and in Hungary, Austria, Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania [as customers] (Q 374). Russia is also deliberately diversifying pipeline routes to increase its own room for commercial and perhaps political manoeuvre. The response of a number of European states, particularly those with high gas dependency on Russia, has been to agree bilateral deals with Russia which have at times caused concern to other Member States. Germany has agreed with Russia to build a pipeline (Northstream) under the Baltic Sea, thus bypassing Poland and Lithuania, with both of which Russia's relations have recently been poor. Northstream, on which construction began in 2006, is designed to reduce the pivotal role of the Ukraine but it is disliked by a number of Baltic States because of the environmental danger it could pose. It caused particular concern in Warsaw because it would rob Poland of valuable transit payments, and could enable Russia to use gas as a political lever in Central Europe, without jeopardising relations with its biggest customer, Germany.

146.  Russia has signed long term supply contracts with Central Asian states to send gas north through Russia. These have deliberately sought to undermine alternative (non-Russian) pipeline proposals to Europe such as the Nabucco pipeline,[77] which is planned to transport Central Asian gas from Turkey to Austria via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, as an alternative to the routes which currently pass through Russia. Another competitor for Nabucco is the so-called Southstream pipeline which Gazprom agreed in June 2007 to build with ENI of Italy. This will run from Russia to Italy bringing gas from Russia across the Black Sea to southern Europe. Bulgaria joined the project in January 2008 and Hungary signed a deal in February 2008 bringing Hungary into the project. In April 2008, the Greek government signed an agreement to host a section of Gazprom's planned south stream natural gas export pipeline".[78] We deal with these questions later in Chapter 7.

147.  The Nabucco project has so far received a somewhat hesitant backing from Member States. Some member governments argue that the route is not commercially viable. Others believe that the additional costs should be regarded as an insurance premium to ensure flexibility of supply The view of the British government is that decisions on such matters should be settled by the market: "If you move all of these questions to a more commercial footing, the cost of gas coming through them becomes clearer and the consumer ultimately is better informed to take a decision …" (Nick Latta, Head of Russia Section, FCO, Q 406). "… if we set up a business environment which allows the market to dictate pipeline directions and diversity of routes to market, that gets us to where we need to be" (Europe Minister, Jim Murphy, Q 408). Robert Cooper's view (Council Secretariat) was that "… Russia is probably more dependent on selling energy to us than we are on buying energy from Russia. They have a very strong interest in being a predictable supplier, so I would say that one should pay an insurance premium, but probably not an absolutely excessive one" (Q 314). Professor Helm thought that the prospects for Nabucco were quite limited and quite a long way off (Q 376).

148.  In the current situation it is uncertain whether Russian policy is the action of a country simply pursuing its economic and commercial interests in an old-fashioned and mercantilist way, or whether Russia intends to use its energy exports as a political weapon to impose its will on neighbours and partners. Since a number of gas pipelines run through countries such as Ukraine whose bilateral relations with Russia can affect supplies to Western countries, the EU Member States should therefore take active and coherent measures, involving common funding where necessary, to diversify both sources of supply and transportation routes, including pipelines such as Nabucco, even where these are not obviously commercial (though recognising that Nabucco will not on its own solve the problems).[79]

149.  The market will sort out many problems for the supply of gas, as it did after the first two oil shocks. However, on its own the market will not rapidly produce the right results, and considerations of security of supply need to enter into the equation.

Improving the EU's security of supply and The Third Energy Liberalisation Package

150.  One of the points which emerged clearly in the evidence we heard was that the EU could do more in its dealing with Russia to protect its gas supplies: by acting together as well as improving its internal market and creating gas and electricity grids. Professor Helm expressed the view that if Europe were to speak with one voice to Russia its influence would be much greater
(Q 372). Sir Roderic Lyne said: "I would put this [the energy dossier] at the very, very top of the list of subjects on which Europe now needs a more effective and co-ordinated policy. I think that is viable but difficult; it needs a lot more work" (Q 148).

151.  Professor Hanson of Birmingham University, spoke of the deals which Gazprom made with national gas companies in Member States: "those create powerful interests in those countries which work through the national political level to facilitate deals with Russia and that is something which runs completely contrary to what the Competition Directorate of the Commission is trying to do with energy unbundling. That is one example of an issue where, if the EU could act in a more unified way, it would be very helpful …" (Q 91). Professor Cooper (Birmingham University) thought that "whether we like it or not … individual European powers are going to carry on behaving in this way, carving out their own separate diplomacy with Moscow". For the EU this was "going to remain an extremely difficult issue, possibly with no solution" (Q 92).

152.  The weakness of EU energy policy towards Russia has been compounded not only by the willingness of member governments to make their own bilateral deals with the Russians, but also by their reluctance to integrate the EU's domestic energy market in a way that would make it more flexible and more able to respond to constraints on supply from one source or the other. Robert Cooper of the Council Secretariat told us: "There are other ways in which one can improve one's security, notably by having a better internal market in energy by having connectivity, so that if one country has an energy problem with Russia or somebody else, they have got alternative ways of getting electricity or gas ... I would predict that we will have [a much stronger energy policy in the EU] in a few years' time" (Q 314).

153.  In an attempt to address the weaknesses in the EU's position, the Commission produced the Third Energy Liberalisation Package (See Box 11 below.) The Commission believes that its proposals are central to the liberalisation of the internal market and to the European Union's overall energy security. The proposals are not directed against foreign investors, although these would of course have to obey the same rules as European companies. State energy companies which wished to invest in European transmission networks would have to decide for themselves whether they wished to reorganise to meet EU rules, just as the Russians expect European companies operating in Russia to abide by the rules as formulated by them. The EU's existing competition rules have showed themselves to be effective against major American companies such as Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, and Apple.

BOX 11
The EU's Third Energy Liberalisation Package
[
80]

The Third Energy Liberalisation Package, published in September 2007, contained European Commission proposals for the reform of the EU electricity and gas regulatory frameworks intended to improve the competitiveness, transparency and flexibility of the European energy market by breaking down barriers to trade within the European Union itself.

One provision was that vertically integrated energy companies would have to separate their production and distribution operations ("unbundling"). This provision would apply also to foreign companies wishing to acquire a significant interest or control over an EU network, which would have to comply with the same unbundling requirements as EU companies. One consideration is that unbundling can be helpful, not just in increasing competition, but in detaching grids. If the grids can then cooperate on a European level it might be possible to help construct a European grid (Professor Helm Q 384).


154.  The Commission's original proposals were supported by the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands, and four other Member States. "The key in all of this", we were told by Nick Latta, Head of Russian Section at the FCO, "is the completion of a genuine internal market for gas and energy within Europe" (Q 401). Since overall dependence of the European Union on Russian gas supplies is, he believed, about 25% a genuine internal market in energy in the European Union would greatly assist those Member States which are at present wholly dependent on Russian gas (see paragraph 132).

155.  Professor Helm warned that, even without dependence on Russia gas, the UK was "terribly exposed" (Q 387). Having depleted its North Sea gas as fast as possible and with nuclear power not consistently available, its need to import gas had increased dramatically and it had no long-term contracts. Eventually, he thought, the UK would have to agree a common energy position with the French and Germans.

156.  The Commission's proposals were severely criticised by the governments of France, Germany and five others, as well as by European energy companies with integrated operations, such as France's EDF and Germany's E.ON,[81] (though E.ON has since accepted a degree of unbundling). Both the Commission and the French and Germans have since indicated some willingness to move towards a compromise.

157.  The Russian reaction has been negative. Russians believe that the Commission's unbundling proposal is designed to discriminate against Russian companies such as Gazprom. Yevgeni Primakov, (Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry) who in principle favours state regulation of strategic sections of the economy, said that Russian experts thought that the proposal would be contrary to the national treatment provisions of the PCA and the Energy Charter.[82] Even Yegor Gaidar, (Russian Institute for the Study of the Economy in Transition) who by contrast favours market freedom, and believes that the Russians should not think they can dictate Europe's energy policy, thought the Commission's proposal for unbundling was important, promising, but dangerous: the EU needed in his view to consider its policies carefully.[83]

158.  A different view was expressed by Pekka Sutela, Head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition: "From the Russian point of view, the premise of granting similar positions to EU and third country companies should be welcomed, not seen as evidence of increased protectionism" (p 185). Some would argue that the negotiation of long-term contracts therefore means that it is difficult to find a concerted approach. Putting forward the contrary view, Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform said: "there is nothing particularly wrong in themselves with long-term contracts; they are not necessarily incompatible with the Commission's efforts to unbundle supply from distribution, therefore such contracts need not be banned or necessarily revisited" (Q 150).

159.  For the EU as a whole secure and competitive energy supplies are a highly desirable objective. The EU should further formulate its own energy policy, using the Commission's proposals on energy liberalisation as its basis. There are ways in which security can and should be improved, notably by having a better internal market in energy, with grid inter-connections and storage, so that if one country has an energy problem with Russia or another country, there are alternative sources for electricity or gas.

160.  The creation of genuinely competitive energy markets within Europe and the creation of Europe-wide energy grids should be a primary objective of EU policy. Even those countries (including the UK) that do not import significant quantities of Russian gas directly are vulnerable if supplies to their continental partners are interrupted; or if there is a prolonged period of cold weather. Exposure to a volatile spot market, without adequate storage facilities, and without long term contracts, mean that they could find themselves with soaring energy prices and gas supplies severely curtailed. Alternative supplies from Norway, even where they are available in sufficient quantity, will not be price competitive. Germany may be reluctant to surrender the competitive advantage it receives from its well developed gas and electrical systems and long term contracts, or France its relative security arising from the scale of its nuclear industry, but agreement between the UK, France and Germany will be a pre-requisite for a genuinely effective market combined with grids and storage systems.

161.  Implementing the Commission proposals on the Third Energy Liberalisation Package will not be easy, given the diversity of view among Member States. The collective negotiating strength of the Member States is at present seriously undermined by the willingness of each of them to go its own way. A degree of structured cohesion is necessary if EU energy policy towards Russia is to be effective.

A European Energy Policy towards Russia?

THE ENERGY CHARTER TREATY AND THE TRANSIT PROTOCOL

162.  The belief that the Russians would adopt and apply liberal rules in their energy sector underlies the two main instruments available to the EU for managing its energy relationship with Russia: the Energy Charter Treaty and its Transit Protocol. Patrick Child (Head of Cabinet of the External Relations Commissioner) told us that the European Union has a "fairly clear understanding" of what it would like from Russia as a partner in energy: "reliable supplies which are not influenced by political considerations, but are based on sound and reliable commercial relationships"; and for European firms to have the same opportunities to get involved in Russian markets as foreign firms have in European markets (Q 358).

BOX 12
Energy Charter Treaty and Transit Protocol

The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) dates back to a European initiative of the early 1990s, when energy appeared to be an obvious area for mutually beneficial cooperation between East and West. An "Energy Charter" was signed in 1991 between a number of countries including Russia. This was "a concise expression of the principles that should underpin international energy cooperation, based on a shared interest in secure energy supply and sustainable economic development."[84]

A Treaty was then negotiated, based on these principles, and expanded beyond Europe to include other states with a significant interest in energy matters.[85] The Treaty was signed in December 1994, and entered into force in April 1998 after being ratified by 51 states in Europe, America, and Asia, and by the European Union. It has not yet been ratified by Russia or Belarus (though both apply it provisionally) or by Iceland, Norway and Australia.

The ECT, like the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, is intended as a legally binding multilateral agreement designed "to strengthen the rule of law on energy issues, by creating a level playing field of rules to be observed by all participating governments, thus minimising the risks associated with energy-related investments and trade". It focuses on five broad areas: protection of foreign investments; free trade in energy materials, products and equipment; freedom of transit through pipelines and grids; dispute resolution; energy efficiency and environmental protection.

The "Energy Charter Conference", which consists of all signatories, meets regularly to monitor progress (in Istanbul in December 2007, the Conference discussed energy security in the Black and Caspian Seas). There is a small independent Secretariat based in Brussels. Experts meet to discuss technical matters such as energy market restructuring, regional energy markets, and regional gas markets.[86]

Negotiations on a detailed Transit Protocol began in 2000 but have so far not been completed. The aim of the Protocol is "to develop a regime of commonly-accepted operative principles covering transit flows of energy resources, both hydrocarbons and electricity, crossing at least two national boundaries, designed to ensure the security and non-interruption of transit."[87]


163.  Attempts to design an effective policy to manage and reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy have, however, been undermined in part by a failure to assess Russian objectives realistically, and to accept that they differ substantially from those of the EU. The EU—driven by a combination of free market principle, commercial self interest, and wishful thinking—has proceeded on the basis that the Russians would open their markets and their pipelines, in part because they needed Western know-how and capital. However, for the time being at least the Russian determination to maintain a firm control over their energy sector (see above) means that they have no interest in ratifying the Energy Charter Treaty and the Transit Protocol, which they believe are intended to weaken that control. The Russian Ambassador in London maintained that the Treaty was being implemented, but on a temporary basis (Q 426), but Professor Helm thought that Europeans should not have illusions that Russia would suddenly say "Let's liberalise our market and give third party access", selling the oil and gas to anyone. In his view this was an illusion which had cost the Europeans several years in putting a strategy together and it would have very serious consequences in the next decade (Q 368).

164.  The view of the British Government is nevertheless that "the Charter is the only multilateral agreement in play" (Q 400). Russian concerns about the Charter Treaty and the Transit Protocol have not been clearly articulated which, say the British, makes it hard to envisage what mutually acceptable changes might be introduced. The scope of the Treaty goes, in any case, much wider than the EU and Russia: it embraces other countries formerly in the Soviet Union, Japan, and North America. The British view is therefore that "the best way forward is to remain with the Charter, willingly renegotiated if necessary, but only in principle entering into renegotiation if there is something worthwhile on the other side" (Q 400).

165.  This approach does not explain why the Russians should offer "something worthwhile" to secure even an improved version of a Treaty they do not like. Indeed Patrick Child (Head of Cabinet of the Commissioner for External Relations) said to us that he did not know whether the Charter was the right vehicle to achieve the European Union's objectives, because of the negative political baggage it had acquired on the Russian side (Q 358). Professor Helm thought it was hopeless to use political and diplomatic capital on the idea that the Russians could be persuaded to admit third party access to their gas network. The Europeans were wasting a great deal of time and effort to no net benefit (Q 383).

166.  Negotiations on the Transit Protocol (Box 12 above) are currently hanging fire. The Russians consider that the Protocol discriminates against their interests and gives unfair advantages to the European Union. They object particularly to the provision for third party access to their pipelines, which remain a state monopoly under Transneft. They claim that allowing foreigners to buy into the Russian pipeline network, as demanded by the European Union, "would create huge risks for the Russian exporters working on the basis of long-term contracts. Losses on such risks could amount to many hundreds of millions of dollars." The Russian position is therefore that "We are ready to ratify it if the transit negotiations see a successful completion to the mutual satisfaction of the parties."[88] The Russian Ambassador in London told us that Russia was interested in a lasting instrument that would effectively regulate transit, particularly since 95% of Russian gas and 40% of oil are supplied to trade markets by means of transit through other countries (Q 426). The Russian State Duma had decided some time ago that the Treaty could be ratified only when Russian proposals for the Transit Protocol and the Energy Charter were taken into account, and Mr Putin confirmed this during the EU-Russia Summit in Helsinki in 2006.[89]

167.  We doubt whether the ECT and the Transit Protocol are the right vehicles to achieve the EU's objectives because of Russian objections. There seems little point in expending further political capital on trying to persuade the Russians to ratify the Energy Charter Treaty and the Transit Protocol as they stand: they are not going to do so.

168.  If negotiations get under way later this year for a new PCA the EU should be prepared to explore with Russia whether that instrument could provide a legally binding framework for incorporating energy provisions such as those contained in the ECT.


63   The House of Lords EU Committee has published several reports of relevance to the EU's energy relationship with Russia. These include: "Gas: Liberalised Markets and Security of Supply", 17th report of session 2003-04; "The Commission's Green Paper, "A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy", 41st report of session 2005-06; "The Single Market: Wallflower or Dancing Partner?" 5th report of session 2007-08. Back

64   See written evidence (p 137): letter from the Minister for Europe, Jim Murphy MP, to Lord Grenfell, 15 April 2008. Back

65   Helm D, The Russian dimension and Europe's external energy policy, 3 September 2007, quoting BP Statistical review of World Energy. Back

66   Speech by Ms Benita Ferrero Waldner, "The European Union and Russia-future prospects", Salzburg Global Seminar, 6 April 2008. Back

67   Commission of the European Communities: "A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy" (http://ec.europa.eu/energy/green-paper-energy/doc/2006_03_08_gp_document_en.pdf ) Back

68   Commission of the European Communities: An energy policy for Europe: Commission steps up to the energy challenges of the 21st Century (http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction). Back

69   Council of the European Union: "Brussels European Council 8/9 March 2007:Presidency Conclusions (www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/PressData/en/ec/93135) Back

70   On 19 September 2007 the EC tabled a liberalisation package to complete earlier attempts to liberalise EU electricity and gas markets. These build on Directives 2003/54/EC and 2003/55/EC. Agreement for liberalisation is scheduled for June 2008. Back

71   The British Government informed us that it was difficult to measure for certain the exact volumes of Russian gas imported into the UK, but there were no direct gas imports from Russia. Indirect imports measured no more than 0.5% (footnote to Q 402).  Back

72   Figures obtained from the European Commission services, DG Energy and Transport, and are provided for purposes of comparison as percentage levels for dependency vary with the source. The International Energy Agency and Eurostat give different percentages. Back

73   Meeting, Mr Shawn McCormick, TNK-BP, Moscow, 13 December 2007, see Appendix 4. Back

74   Country Analysis Brief: Russia, US Department of Energy, www.eia.doe.gov  Back

75   Meeting, Mr Yegor Gaidar, Moscow 11 December 2007, see Appendix 4 Back

76   "Gazprom, Nigeria to sign gas deal", PressTV, 5 January 2008, website: www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=37597&sectionid=3510213.  Back

77   Nabucco is owned by a consortium of companies. Back

78   Financial Times, 30 April 2008. Back

79   The EU Committee's report on Renewable Energy Targets is due to be published in July. Back

80   The EU Committee's report on "The Single Market: Wallflower or Dancing partner", HL Paper 36, 8 February 2008, discusses the EU's unbundling policies. Back

81   European Voice, 2 August 2007, www.europeanvoice.com/archive/article.asp?id=28645. Back

82   Meeting, Mr Yevgeni Primakov, 12 December 2007, Moscow, see Appendix 4. Back

83   Meeting, Mr Yegor Gaidar, 11 December 2007, Moscow, see Appendix 4. Back

84   Text at www.encharter.org/index.php?id=29. Back

85   The Treaty is more comprehensive than the International Energy Agency, set up in 1974 at the time of the first oil shock, which does not include Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union.  Back

86   The text of the Treaty is at http://www.encharter.org/fileadmin/user_upload/document/EN.pdf  Back

87   Introduction to the Energy Charter, www.encharter.org. Back

88   Statement by Russian Ministry of Energy, August 17, 2006, http://www.minprom.gov.ru/eng/appearance/26; International Herald Tribune, 12 December 2006; www.iht.com/articles/2006/12/12. Back

89   According to Mr Fedotov, the concerns include recognition in the Protocol of "the traditional supplier's priority right to conclude a new transit contract, right of first refusal, and tariffs on long-term contracts, cost plus a reasonable income formula, and the transit protocol's scope of obligation." Back


 
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