SUMMARY
The enlargement process has, historically and in
successive Treaties, been understood as an integral part of the
European Union's development. 40 years after the first enlargement,
which brought the UK, Ireland and Denmark into the then European
Community, the EU is about to accept its 28th Member State, Croatia.
With eight further countries either already candidates or potential
candidates, the EU's enlargement agenda shows no sign of halting.
Yet further enlargement will not be easy, either for the Union
or for the candidate countries.
This report considers the process by which aspirant
countries—that is, the EU's candidate and potential candidate
countries—progress towards readiness for membership. The
lessons learned from the 'big bang' enlargement of 10 countries
in 2004 and the accession of Romania and Bulgaria in 2007—as
well as from the ensuing Cooperation and Verification Mechanism
for these two countries—have led to significant changes
to the enlargement process.
We welcome the increased focus on implementing real,
lasting changes in aspirant countries ahead of their accession,
and the prominence of the rule of law in ongoing dialogues about
enlargement. We also support the strict use of conditionality,
so that progress towards membership is inseparable from concrete
reform and vice versa. At the same time, it is essential that
the enlargement process is not exploited by Member States in order
to gain leverage in bilateral disputes with aspirant countries.
This report explores the impact of accession and
enlargement on the candidate countries and on the existing Union.
Although the enlargement process undoubtedly brings economic benefits
for candidates and new Member States, the economic and social
impact on existing Member States is less easy to measure, particularly
with regard to the free movement of workers. Nevertheless, enlargement
offers both candidates and the EU enhanced stability and security,
and the enlargement agenda remains one of the Union's main tools
for ensuring the stability of its neighbourhood.
We also draw attention to the obligation for new
Member States to join the euro area. The medium- and long-term
impacts of further countries joining the euro area represent a
forgotten dimension of the ongoing discussions about the future
structure and governance of the area. It is important that future
members are engaged now in these vital discussions in order to
both ease their entry and ensure that the new structures are able
to cope with enlargement.
Many countries still aspire to join the Union, and
so our report concludes with an examination of the likely scope
of enlargement in the medium-term and whether there are any credible
alternatives to full membership. We note that enlargement fatigue
(in the EU) and accession fatigue (in aspirant countries) could
seriously threaten the future of the enlargement agenda, but find
that the EU's capacity to absorb new members currently suffices
and should not pose a threat to the advancement of that agenda.
Although there now exist several 'stepping stone' mechanisms on
the path to full membership, such as EEA membership, we do not
think that any credible alternatives to membership exist. Discussions
about 'privileged partnerships' or 'associate' member status are
distractions that hinder reform in aspirant countries and diminish
the EU's soft power.
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