The future of EU enlargement
Chapter 1: Introduction
1. On 1 July 2013, Croatia is due to become the
28th member of the European Union, the first new Member State
since Bulgaria and Romania joined the Union in 2007. Croatia is
the first of the Western Balkan countries covered by the 2003
Thessaloniki Agenda to reach 'acceding country' status.[1]
2. In the original founding Treaties, and in
successive Treaties, the process of enlargement has been understood
as an integral part of the Union's development, and the UK has
long been a supporter of the enlargement agenda. This report asks
where that agenda stands 40 years after the first enlargement
that brought the UK, Ireland and Denmark into the then European
Community. With one acceding country, five candidate countries,
and three potential candidate countries—countries with a
'European perspective'—how can the EU ensure that the accession
process is both rigorous and fair to the current Member States
and those who wish to join?
3. This report revisits some of the questions
posed in our 2006 report The Further Enlargement of the EU:
threat or opportunity?[2]
It does so in the context of the economic crisis and debates
about the future structure of both the euro area and the Union,
the lessons learned from the 2007 entry of Bulgaria and Romania
into the EU, and the full experience of the 2004 enlargement.
4. The members of our Committee are listed in
Appendix 1. The inquiry was conducted between October 2012 and
February 2013. We have received a wide range of evidence, including
from witnesses in countries which might join the EU, in existing
Member States, and from the Commissioner for Enlargement and European
Neighbourhood Policy, Commissioner Füle, and the UK Government.
Our witnesses are listed in Appendix 2. We are grateful to them
all for the written and oral evidence they have provided. The
evidence that we received is available online. Our Call for Evidence
is reproduced in Appendix 3.
5. Chapter 2 sets out the history of the EU's
enlargement agenda and the reasons for its continued importance
to the Union, as well as considering the current process by which
enlargement is conducted. Chapters 3 and 4 consider the impact
that previous enlargements, particularly those of 2004 and 2007,
have had on the acceding countries, the existing Member States,
and the Union as a whole. Chapter 5 then explores the potential
impacts of future enlargements, as well as the potential barriers
to successful enlargement. Finally, Chapter 6 considers whether
there are any viable alternatives to enlargement.
6. We make this report to the House for debate.
BOX 1
Chronology of enlargement
The European Coal and Steel Community, the first
of the European Communities, was founded in 1951 by Belgium, France,
Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
1 January 1973: Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom
- 9 Member States
1 January 1981: Greece - 10 Member States
1 January 1986: Portugal and Spain - 12 Member States
1 January 1995: Austria, Finland and Sweden - 15
Member States
1 May 2004: Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary,
Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia - 25 Member
States
1 January 2007: Bulgaria and Romania - 27 Member
States
1 July 2013 (expected): Croatia - 28 Member States
Enlargement has taken place on varying scales since
1973. As a comparison, we offer the following figures regarding
the increase of the Union's (or Community's) population subsequent
to each enlargement.
1973: 192 million (EU-6) - 257 million (EU-9), a
33 per cent increase
1981: 262 million (EU-9) - 271 million (EU-10), a
4 per cent increase
1986: 274 million (EU-10) - 322 million (EU-12),
a 18 per cent increase
1995: 350 million (EU-12) - 372 million (EU-15),
a 6 per cent increase
2004: 385 million (EU-15) - 459 million (EU-25),
a 19 per cent increase
2007: 466 million (EU-25) - 495 million (EU-27),
a 6 per cent increase
2013 (expected): 504 million (EU-27) - 508 million
(EU-28), a 1 per cent increase
If all of the current aspirant countries (see Box
3) were to join alongside Croatia, the total increase over the
EU-27 population would be 93 million, or 18 per cent.
Source: Eurostat and, pre-2001, the European Observatory
on the Social Situation and Demography
1 At the 19-20 June 2003 meeting, the Council endorsed
the General Affairs Council Conclusions of 16 June (10369/03),
including The Thessaloniki Agenda for the Western Balkans:
moving towards European integration (http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/gena/76201.pdf). Back
2
European Union Committee, 53rd Report (2005-06): The Further
Enlargement of the EU: threat or opportunity? (HL Paper 273) Back
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