Examination of Witnesses (Questions 7180
7180. CHAIRMAN: So you are assuming that
nothing changes between 2001 and, say, 2020 in terms of population
and working population?
7181. MR CAMERON: My Lord, that is right
because it gives a rough indication as to how many people you
can get to. Your Lordship is absolutely right; no assumption made
is to changing population elsewhere in London.
7182. CHAIRMAN: It might be very rough,
might it not?
7183. MR CAMERON: My Lord, it will only
be rough if there were very, very substantial changes in population
across a densely developed urban area. There will be some changes
but they will not be that substantial.
7184. CHAIRMAN: I do not want to go on
pestering you about this, but the fact of the matter is that Crossrail
is not the only thing that is happening in this area; there is
the whole of the Thames Gateway plan which is going to be implemented.
It will be implemented with effect on houses, population, jobs
and so on, at various stages up to 2020. None of that is built
into any of these figures.
7185. MR CAMERON: My Lord, that is right,
but of course this is looking west, and although part of the Thames
Gateway is to the west most of that new housing will be to the
7186. CHAIRMAN: Precisely, so it is all
the more relevant to the question of Crossrail.
7187. MR CAMERON: My Lord, yes, but not
to these figures here, because what this is looking at, and it
is shown on the map at page 50, is accessibility to the west.
Most of the development is going to happen to the east of Abbey
Wood in the Thames Gateway.46
7188. LORD YOUNG OF NORWOOD GREEN: I
am willing to accept thatif you will pardon the punyou
have got the direction of travel right, but I have still got a
doubt in my mind about the fact that the waiting time and the
penalties that you have calculated assume no other improvements
to those lines. In other words, without the Crossrail option nothing
else is going to happen between now and, let us say, the opening
of Crossrail, although when we listen to Mr Donovan there were
other things that possibly could happen in terms of transit, etc,
that might impact on this.
7189. MR CAMERON: My Lord, yes. This
relates specifically to rail travel. The North Kent lineI
do not want to use the wrong wordis a busy line with limited
opportunities for improvement, which is precisely the reason that
Crossrail do not want to rely on it, because they say it is unreliable.
Therefore, there are not many opportunities without substantial
infrastructure works on the North Kent line.
Can I make one other comment? I do not know if it helps. I think,
also, if there were other improvements that changed the figures
they kind of change the figures for whatever you were comparing.
So they change the base figure as well. In fact, what this is
doing is a comparison, and if there were significant changes that,
for example, increased the population that were accessible that
would be there on either of the two runs you did. So the comparison
would still be similar even though the actual figures may have
changed in the 20 yearsif you see what I mean. The key
to this is the increase line, is it not? It is showing the difference
between the two.
7190. LORD YOUNG OF NORWOOD GREEN: Yes.
So if you changed the base population, say, because London has
increased and the actual numbers increased, they would increase
on both scenarios. So the change may well be the same, albeit
that the data may be a little different.
7191. That is not the point I was referring
(Mr Donovan) But I think the schemes I
mentioned, most of those would be to the east of Abbey Wood because
they are about affecting the situation in Bexley.
7192. CHAIRMAN: Is that all you wanted
to ask Mr Donovan?
7193. MR CAMERON: It is, thank you, my
7194. CHAIRMAN: Ms Lieven, have you got
7195. MS LIEVEN: I have got a few questions,
my Lord, but I am going to keep them very short and largely leave
the matter for Mr Berryman.
Cross-examined by MS
7196. MS LIEVEN: Mr Donovan, just so
we are clear, so I can establish I do not have to ask you lots
of detailed questions, am I right in thinking that you accept
that even if Crossrail simply stops at Abbey Wood there would
be clear benefit to passengers to the east of Abbey Wood both
in terms of time savings and in terms of journey quality, if I
can put it like that?
Yes, absolutely. We have always said that.
7197. You have cited this figure of 15 minutes
waiting at Abbey Wood, but in terms of people in the peak hour
going into work, either to the West End or to the City, the average
waiting time, if you get on your train at Belvedere and you get
off at Abbey Wood to interchange with Crossrail, is two-and-a-half
(Mr Donovan) That would be for people
7198. That is what I am talking about: you are
going in in the morning to your average job in the City or in
the West End and your average waiting time is two-and-a-half minutes.
(Mr Donovan) I understand there are some
industry standards as to what is accepted, as to how you actually
show that, but the average waiting time would be of that order.
It is going to be shorter than the 15; the 15 is looking at it
in the other direction.
7199. Yes. Going in in the morning, an average
of two-and-a-half minutes. Coming out in the evening, 15 is the
worst case; the average is seven-and-a-half minutes. Yes?
(Mr Donovan) Yes. Obviously it will vary,
45 46 Committee Ref: A35, Population & Employment
west of Belvedere (6) (BEXYLB-44_05A-050) Back