Select Committee on the Crossrail Bill Minutes of Evidence

Examination of Witnesses (Questions 9100 - 9119)

  9100. MR ELVIN: Our position is that that will not be the case and TfL will not have sole responsibility.

  9101. LORD BERKELEY: Thank you, my Lord Chairman, and thank you, Mr Elvin. I think we take great comfort from that remark.

  9102. LORD BROOKE OF ALVERTHORPE: So who will have the responsibility?

  9103. MR ELVIN: In that case, it will be Network Rail.

  9104. LORD SNAPE: We heard that one!

  9105. MR ELVIN: Mr Berryman is getting more indiscreet the closer we get to the end of the Committee hearings! I will have to get a special bag to put over his head, I think!

  9106. LORD BERKELEY: My Lord Chairman, have we finished with Ms Durham as far as you are concerned?

  9107. CHAIRMAN: Yes.

The witness withdrew

  9108. CHAIRMAN: What do you want to do? We have half an hour, I think. Do you want to call another witness?

  9109. LORD BERKELEY: I think we could certainly start with Mr Garratt now. I am not sure that there will be time for cross-examination, so whether Mr Elvin would prefer to stop now.

  9110. MR ELVIN: Mr Taylor is going to be cross-examining Mr Garratt. I thought he had sat and done little enough as it was today! I suspect that, however far we get today, we will need to cross-examine on another day. I am perfectly happy, and Mr Taylor is, to hear Mr Garratt now and we can simply continue when we come back.

  9111. CHAIRMAN: You are happy to come back on another day, are you?

  9112. LORD BERKELEY: Yes, my Lord Chairman. I think we have agreed that we can come back on Thursday morning, but not tomorrow.


  9113. LORD BERKELEY: This is my final witness, Mike Garratt of MDS Transmodal, who is the author of a report which we referred to earlier and which you have all seen. Mr Garratt, could you briefly explain your company, what it does and your own experience in this field of timetabling and forecasting and things like that?

   (Mr Garratt) My name is Mike Garratt and I am the Managing Director of MDS Transmodal. Insofar as these proceedings are concerned, I think the important thing to say is that our company runs something called the `GB freight model' which we have been running for private clients and for government for about seven or eight years. It has been used to inform the port forecasting exercise which formed part of the Government's interim ports policy last year, it informed the forecasting of the Rail White Paper which came out last July, and it has been used in this process.

  9114. This slide summarises it.[41] Could you just take the Committee very quickly through it.

  (Mr Garratt) Certainly. The model started life in about 1999. It was used initially to inform the Government's then ten-year Transport Plan in 2000 and has been used subsequently in the way I described. It generates freight forecasts by origin, destination and mode and the results can be transformed into train movements. We use it in a way which is entirely compatible with the work we have done for the Government last year to generate forecasts for 2015 and 2030 of train movements along the Crossrail corridor or along parts of the Crossrail corridor. They are expressed as origin and destination movements so that they can be, as it were, dropped into a timetabling exercise. There is a relationship between the number of trains running and the number of paths they require.

  9115. Perhaps I could just stop you there and refer you to Mr Berryman's evidence of last Tuesday, paragraph 8173, when he said, "I ought to mention at this point that not all the existing train paths are used, by a very, very wide margin. I think that only about 50 per cent are actually used now, so there is already a 100 per cent growth capability". Is that correct, as you see it, or what is your view on that statement?

   (Mr Garratt) Well, certainly not all the paths are used, but there is a very good reason for that. In the case of particularly non-intermodal trains, there is fluctuation in demand which means that some parts are used some days and not others. In the case of intermodal trains, in particular, the need to pass trains between different terminals and on several different routes means that you need a great deal of flexibility. Otherwise, you would effectively have total inertia and you would never be able to change train patterns. In fact, in this case the ratio between the number of trains and the number of paths was agreed with Crossrail as we embarked upon this process.

  9116. You do not want to give any figures?

   (Mr Garratt) Yes, the ratios on the Great Eastern were 1.59 paths per train and on the Great Western 2.45 for the reasons I have just explained.

  9117. Let's just move on to slide 32 which summarises, I think, the modelling work which you have done with the timetabling group.[42]

  (Mr Garratt) Yes, that is correct. These are paths demanded in 2015. The permission number sometimes quoted in the text is 406. A handful of those paths were shown to be exceptional movements and we have agreed that they be removed, so we settled on 396 paths and handed our output over to Crossrail who tested two scenarios. One was without either the Crossrail trains, i.e., the existing trains, and no infrastructure measures and the other was with the Crossrail services and the infrastructure enhancements. The results of that exercise done by Mr Deal, who is in the audience here today, were more or less neutral. It made a little difference as to the existing situation as compared to with the Crossrail trains and infrastructure measures.

  9118. Have you got any idea what the result would be if it was with Crossrail trains and without any enhancements? Has any work been done on that?

   (Mr Garratt) No, I have absolutely no idea. I think the ORR took great comfort from the fact that both sides, so to speak, were able to agree on both the demand exercise and on the timetabling exercise it has presented and, in that sense, that was the only show in town.

  9119. Can you explain how you measure or model PPMs?

   (Mr Garratt) That is not my area of expertise.

41   Committee Ref: A52, The GB Freight Model (LINEWD-34_05-032) Back

42   Committee Ref: A52, Crossrail and freight capacity modelling (LINEWD-34_05-033) Back

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